It would in 99+% of cases trip, yes. Whether the fish would survive that depends. RCDs can occasionally fail though.
Although most of those sound unlikely, a mix of silicone and plastic fibres would put a new sheath on the cable that would be as safe as the existing one, and its an easy job. Just ensure a decent seal to the pump body, ie thoroughly clean and abrade, and ensure a reasonable coating thickness all over. Cost =A31.50, time taken 15 minutes.
NT