Re: coming soon

[Max Demian]

"Four legs good; two legs bad." --> "Four legs good; two legs better."

"Stay Home, Protect the NHS, Save Lives" --> ???

[Andrew]

I was listening to something on R4 about the cost of the lockdown.

Apparently if the cure makes the economy drop more then 6.8% then the cure is worse than the disease.

Today the BoE announced that GDP is expected to drop by more than twice this. Oops, and I don't suppose this was included in the Imperial College spagetti code.

[charles]

"All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others."

[Chris B]

Is that from a purely financial viewpoint? There are other things in life than money. How about if our economy dropped back to the size it was in, say 2010 or even 2000 (years picked simply because it was 10 or

20 years ago) , but nobody died? Would that be better or worse?

[GB]

I saw some economic projections about the lives lost if the economy tanks. I was not convinced.

[GB]

I saw some economic projections about the lives lost if the economy tanks. I was not convinced.

[GB]

I saw some economic projections about the lives lost if the economy tanks. I was not convinced.

[Max Demian]

s/animals/people

[Brian Gaff (Sofa 2]

Wibble wibble bitch bitch.. Did somebody say something? Brian

[bill.shitner]

Is that from a purely financial viewpoint? There are other things in

Financial harm on this scale translates into death, misery and failure to thrive/lead fulfilling lives for a substantial subset of the population, not necessarily confined just to those alive today. A meaningful gauge of how the expected benefits of lockdown for a given period compare to the costs, beyond the financial, should always be part of the calculation that determines the approach, when facing a threat such as COVID.

I'm not convinced that the disease modelling that has driven Government policy is accurate enough to allow it to play such a prominent role. A computational model is only as good as the data it's built on and as far as I am aware, the scientific community didn't know a great deal about variation in permissiveness to viral infection at the time the UCL model was constructed. The model was probably based on some sweeping assumptions that erred hugely on the side of caution. To me, the data acquired over the last few months look as though a substantial proportion of the world's population are not especially susceptible to catching COVID-19, so it runs riot largely among those who are especially permissive to infection, then wanes.

Regards.

Bill.

[tabbypurr]

There's a big difference between those who die from covid and those who die with covid. AFAIK we only know the latter number. How can the situation be modelled without the key piece of data.

NT

[Vir Campestris]

We don't know the other one either.

Nursing home deaths are being linked to COVID in the absence of tests.

Andy