Eclipse risks national grids

The sudden loss and then rise of output from solar panels is a much bigger sudden drop and rise than national grids are designed to handle. Germany in particular is expecting to loose up to 35GW during tomorrow's eclipse, depending on the weather at the time, and has warned that national electricity supplies are at risk.
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Andrew Gabriel
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Drivel. Totality is far to the North and lasts only a few minutes. Also the eclipse is earlyish in the morning when PV output is low anyway. The shadow of the moon moves across the earth and does not cover all places simultaneously.
Clouds drifting by have a similar effect.
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Total Solar Eclipses Total Solar Eclipses are localized and short: a.. The Moon's umbral shadow is at most 267 km across on the Earth. b.. Totality lasts at most about 7.5 minutes, with the shadow sweeping rapidly west-to-east. c.. Only observers in the umbra see a total solar eclipse. d.. Observers in the penumbra see a partial solar eclipse. e.. Everyone else sees nothing. While we often sketch the penumbra as uniform, in reality the penumbra shades gradually from the completely dark umbra out towards the edges. The reason is simple: as you move outwards away from the edge of the umbra, you will see an increasing fraction of the Sun peeking out from behind the Moon. There is a very nice Mir image of the 1999 Aug 11 eclipse shadowshowing what I mean.
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about 60.

so, it will get even lower

add clouds to an eclipse and you get nothing. You've often said that clouds don't matter.
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Lying toad. Of course clouds matter.
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On 19/03/2015 20:06, charles wrote:

If you are in a supersonic jet flying along the eclipse track. At a stationary point on the Earth the total eclipse lasts about 2 minutes.
BBC plan to extend their eclipse by flying with the track but their plane is nowhere near fast enough. ISTR way back the Concorde was fast enough that it could make a decent fist of it. Three flew along the eclipse track in 1999 but didn't give passengers a good view.
http://xjubier.free.fr/en/site_pages/solar_eclipses/TSE_19990811_pg02.html
They did a lot better than the folk on the ground in Cornwall.
Or the original experiment in 1973 that inspired the later public eclipse ride offerings (which were hampered by the tiny windows).
http://jcgl.orpheusweb.co.uk/history/concorde/ChaseTheSun.html

But it would never have been anything like peak summer output which is what the shock horror panic story was comparing it with plus about 50% of additional capacity apparently "installed" in the last 9 months.

Clouds or the eclipse in Germany will have about the same effect.
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There were lots of complaints from people on the Concord flights. Most of them didn't think they got as good a view as they were expecting, due to lack of space to all look out of the windows, or be able to see in the right direction.
I was on Alderney for that one (where there was totality). It was overcast, but somehow, it managed to clear around the sun about 15 mins before we started heading into totality. It was more stunning than I had imagined. A strange patterm was cast across those clouds which remained in much of the rest of the sky, something which apparently hadn't been seen before. We were on Fort Albert which had no services of any type, except you could see a couple of telephone wires had been run along the ground all the way to the top of the fort, where they terminated on IDSN sockets screwed to a wooden stake hammered into the ground. I later saw that Patrick Moore was seated there with a crew, doing the BBC's live reporting during the eclipse.
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I went to France. Trying to see it with 10,000,000 other klods in Cornwall seemed like a completely dopey idea to me.
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Mid-morning, not early morning.
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Andrew Gabriel wrote:

Perhaps just as well that cloud is forecast here tomorrow then? ;-)
Chris
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On Thu, 19 Mar 2015 13:15:04 +0000, Chris J Dixon wrote:

I was thinking more "Perhaps just as well solar electric is such a totally useless irrelevance.", or at least that's what we're always told here...
"Up to 35gw". Yep. Right. Total UK demand at the moment is 42gw. Yes, Germany has a higher population, but...
Anyway, an AA battery is "up to 35gw".
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On Thu, 19 Mar 2015 14:00:13 +0000 (UTC), Adrian

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_Germany
In particular, "The country has been the world's top PV installer for several years and still leads in terms of the overall installed capacity, that amounts to 38,359 megawatts (MW) by January 2015, ahead of China, Italy, Japan, and the United States."
It contributed 35.2 terawatt-hours of electricity in 2014, or about 6.9 percent of the country's electricity requirement.
Except at night, on cloudy days and during eclipses, when they import nuclear-generated electricity from France (rather than making it themselves; bit of hypocrisy there!) or hydro from Norway or Sweden via Denmark.
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On 19/03/2015 14:49, Chris Hogg wrote:

So 38 GW x 24 x 365 = ~332 TWh of capacity...

and about a tenth of the installed capacity... which shows how pointless it is talking about "installed PV capacity".

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German friend tells me their solar is now almost 40GW capacity. When it reaches 50GW capacity, there will be no more government subsidies for new installations. They also have problems with too many south facing - they can't use or sell much of the peak demand, and encourage east/west facing installations now.

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writes:

That's installed capacity. Only = actual capacity if it's sunny everywhere and at midday. Probably not even then
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Was listening to the repeat of Desert Island Discs this morning when the eclipse started here in S London. Not very spectacular due to the cloud coverage.
The track being played?
*I'd rather go blind"
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Dave Plowman snipped-for-privacy@davenoise.co.uk London SW
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On 20/03/2015 10:55, Dave Plowman (News) wrote:

Followed by * I can see clearly now*?
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For those that are interested you can see the effect most clearly here
http://gridwatch.templar.co.uk/france/
As expected a non-event and probably a straw man raised by those who want to prove that renewable energy is really great. Its not, but this isn't why.
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On 20/03/2015 10:58, The Natural Philosopher wrote:

I am surprised it only dipped by a factor of 4 or 5 from the trend line. I measured a decrease in light intensity here of 1/16.

Actually it was a straw man raised by those trying to rubbish solar PV which does attract insane market distorting grants in Germany. They do have way too much of it installed for such a high latitude country.
On this at least we are agreed. BTW Any idea why the solar PV output didn't fall more in line with the reduced light levels?
Simple geometry suggests with a 90+% obscuration of the suns disk incident power on the ground is down by the same proportion so why did the solar PV trace not fall by a similar amount from its trend line?
Is someone running deisel powered fake solar PV arrays during daytime? (serious question)
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Drivel. Wouldn't be worth it.
My solar PV did not shut down. Power output was down about 75% of what might be expected at max covered solar disc. Energy lost maybe one Kwh on 4 Kw array. So 16 Kwh today rather than 17Kwh
Probably all to do with diffuse light.
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