For comparison I used to use about 12420kWh of oil a year. Now, with a 13kW ASHP, electricity consumption for heating and hot water over the first year was 2867.5kWh.
So if your usage is about 8000kWh you may be ok with a 10kW ASHP, although the calcs will tell you about your peak instantaneous losses on freezing days, which is what matters for sizing. For my draughty averagely-insulated house the 13kW is plenty (I actually bumped up from 10kW to get a slightly quieter unit, not because the extra heat was needed) and has worked fine down to -9C, which is the coldest we've had.
Unless you live in Greenland, I expect you'll find it's well within the capability of an ASHP, even on the coldest winter days.
Theo