When I put in my new furnace back in '03 the high efficiency units were not terribly reliable - several friends and my brother had to replace them in 4-7 years. My furnace was about 33 years old and I had already replaced the blower motor - and since I was involved in the addition and renovations at the house next door and they needed a new furnace installed, I worked a deal with the HVAC contractor and had mine done at the same time. I put in a Tempstar non condensing 2 stage with DC variable speed blower. My gas bill didn't change at all, but my hydro bill dropped. Last year is the first time my annual gas bill hit $750 (furnace, water heater, and BarB Q). Had a noisy eductor fan that I fixed by brazing the squirrel cage to the hub - other than that it's been 100%.
Going to the high efficiency you MIGHT save 10% on your gas bill. If you don't have the brushless dc motors, definitely go for them on the new furnace. The electrical savings will be greater than your gas savings going to the condensing furnace (which is all we can buy now)