Furnace statistics now in

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I just got my first gas bill after a full month of use on my new hi-efficiency furnace.
On the bill they put a comparison of usage from the present date and compare it to last year.
Fortunately for the sake of comparison the temp this year averaged one degree colder than last year but the usage was only 85% as much.
Not only that, since my wife hates the cold, I told her we could keep the temp, in the house a few degrees warmer at night.
I used to turn it down to 62F and now I just turn it down to 64 or 65
House is 1900 sq ft but has a basement that I keep slightly heated.
Average temp 15F
total gas charges including surcharges $210
Something I can actually afford
Got my $150 energy rebate check a few days ago
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On 3/5/2015 7:01 AM, philo wrote:

Thanks for the good news, hope someone is able to afford some thing. I signed up with Energetix a couple years ago, when the door to door guy promised it would be cheaper. After hearing radio ads for Noco, I went online and made some calls. Find out for Dec, I could have spent #103 less if I had Noco. I put in for switch, but they can only do that at meter reads, two months from now. So, please compare energy provider prices if you have a choice in your area.
- . Christopher A. Young learn more about Jesus . www.lds.org . .
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On 3/5/2015 7:25 AM, Stormin Mormon wrote:

Door to door guy, only a mormon would sign up for one of those deals.
--
Froz...


The system will be down for 10 days for preventive maintenance.
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FrozenNorth wrote:

Hi, I think the door to door guy was a Mormon too.
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enhanced sentence for being fake Mormons?
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On Thu, 05 Mar 2015 07:25:13 -0500, Stormin Mormon

You are virtually always better off buying at spot price than signing a fixed price contract for 2 or more years. (long term)
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On 3/5/2015 8:40 PM, snipped-for-privacy@snyder.on.ca wrote:

You expect fuel prices to come down? Not me.
- . Christopher A. Young learn more about Jesus . www.lds.org . .
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On Fri, 06 Mar 2015 06:49:39 -0500, Stormin Mormon

Natural gas prices on the spot market up here have only very occaisionally exceded contract prices, while contract prices have always anticipated increases. I buy my gas direct from Union Gas here in Ontario - the door to door buys buy the gas from Union Gas too, and they have to pay the door-to-door goons their comission as well as pay their stockholders or owners a fat profit. You can be sure they won't be loosing money - so their price HAS to be higher.
If you want price security you have top pay for it.
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On Friday, March 6, 2015 at 5:42:18 PM UTC-5, snipped-for-privacy@snyder.on.ca wrote:

I think what the companies who guarantee and lock in the price for customers are doing is hedging it on the futures markets. By doing that, they can lock in the prices for a year and beyond. That works fine if the price later goes up, customers will be happy, the company makes money, etc. But if prices go down sharply, IDK what happens, because you would think a lot of customers would bail, switch suppliers and IDK how the company could prevent it, collect, etc. IDK what the typical contract for locking in even says about any of that.
If you use enough gas, you could hedge on the futures markets yourself, it's easy to do. But even with the mini contracts, it would be about $7K worth of nat gas per contract. That would work for a larger business, apartment buildings, but not for residential.
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On Fri, 6 Mar 2015 16:35:37 -0800 (PST), trader_4

Many contracts prevent you from bailing. They have you locked unless you are going to hook your gas main to a different pipe someplace. You really have to read what you sign up for as some switch to variable rates. Same gas going into the pipe, but the so called gas sellers bill according to your meter. Quite the scam

Another mine field. They like to contract for a specific amount of gas. Go over and you pay a higher rate. Go under and you pay a higher rate. How much gas will you use in each month of the next two years? Have a very good and very bad month of business and you pay a penalty. I can predict two weeks ahead, but not much more the way our business is. .
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They have you locked in that you can't even change to a different fuel - and here in Ontario before electricity market was deregulated, when you signed up for fixed price gas (for 5 years) you were also compelled to deal with them for your electricity "if and when the market was de-regulated" Contract gas over the last 8 years or so has been something like 15% more than spot market gas. That doesn't ean your bill is 15% more because you still pay the same "storage and delivery" fees, which are paid to your local gas supplier (union gas in waterloo, Kitchener Public Utilities in Kitchener) Kitchener was buying "contract gas" to have a predictable price structure and Kitchener customers paid 90 percent more for the gas portion of their bill last year than Union Gas customers in Waterloo, due to 2009 gas contracts entered into by the city utility.
Spot price in Jan 2010 was about $5.75US per million BTU, and $2.00 US in April 2012. In Sept 2014 it was about $2.60US. There was a short spike in July 2014 to close to $6.00 US. Most of the 2009 contracts would have been for the $6.50 per million BTU range, while the 4 year average spot price was closer to $3.50.
I paid under $750 per year average for my gas bill in Waterloo at spot rate. Across the municipal boundary in Kitchener the same gas bill would have been over $1000. If I had signed a contract with Direct Energy in 2009 my 2014 gas bill would have been $1400, +/-
Looking at the 7 year gas price graph, march 2015 price is $2.80, and it has not been over $6 average on a monthly basis since 2009 - with only 2 spikes over $5 - down from about $14 in 2008.
I don't see natural gas prices reaching 2008 levels again in my lifetime.
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On Saturday, March 7, 2015 at 12:28:33 AM UTC-5, Ed Pawlowski wrote:

I would assume that they do say that you can't bail. The obvious problem for them is trying to somehow collect if you do bail. Not saying they don't have a case, but is it worth it, practical to go after homeowners scattered all over the place for the amounts involved. And then you have renters, people who move, people who are judgement proof. Seems like it would be hard to collect and they would wind up losing money on a lot of those deals.

If you use the future markets yourself, there is no different rates. You just buy enough futures contracts to equal your typical usage for that year. You may not cover it exactly, but you would be hedged and exposed to a small fraction of the risk that you would otherwise. If you typically use 120 units of energy, and a futures contract is 100 units, you buy one nat gas futures contract. You've now locked in the price. If you actually use 100, you're perfectly hedged and regardless of where gas prices go, you won't be affected. If you use 120, you're about 80% hedged, etc. You're still exposed to prices going up on the 20 units that aren't hedged. It's still a big reduction in risk. All it takes is brokerage account, a couple thousand bucks, and enough gas usage to equal at least one futures contract worth.
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On Sat, 7 Mar 2015 05:23:55 -0800 (PST), trader_4

If it is like the electric setup here, it is easy. No pay, no gas. Although my electric supplier is chosen by me, the charges appear on the consolidated bill and is sent to them by the utility. You can't change suppliers and skip.
Renters may move to a new location, but they won't get service again under the same name unless they pay up. Or you will be required to make an up front deposit.
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On Saturday, March 7, 2015 at 11:04:15 AM UTC-5, Ed Pawlowski wrote:

I think you're right about that. I haven't used a different supplier, but it would make sense. Right now the separate charges for gas and delivery show up on the bill. So, I guess the gas utility collects the money and forwards it on. That would make it easy to enforce.

Yes, sounds right.
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Seems like a good deal. What was the total cost of the new furnace?
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On 03/05/2015 10:24 AM, CRNG wrote: afford

After the rebate it was about $3600
It's 96% efficiency. The former one (23 years ago) was 80% efficiency and about $2900...so it was not too bad.
The contractor did not charge me extra for priority which I needed due to the old one breaking down in winter...plus there was no charge for them to do a follow up call a month later to confirm all was working ok...and to fine tune the venting.
It will pay for itself in 7 or 8 years I'm guessing.
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120 months of heating - that's 30 years at 4 months of winter per year - Move north a bit and have 6 months of cold weather and it's only 20 years. 90% chance the furnace doesn't last until it's paid for itself.
Sorry for the downer ----- Still a good idea to have a good current furnace.
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snipped-for-privacy@snyder.on.ca wrote:

Hi, Some of you jealous or what? There are many reasons installing newer any thing. Furnace blower will run in summer with A/C. New motors are more efficient than old ones too. Most electric power consumption on furnace is by the motor. Is it bad conserving energy for one thing? Life is not entirely based on monetary value as far as I am concerned.
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wrote:

That's what I was saying. It'll never pay for itself in fuel savings over it's lifespan, but man, the DC blower sure takes a lot less juice than the old AC blowers did., and the peace of mind- less chance of being stuck in the cold with a dead furnace- is worth something too.
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snipped-for-privacy@snyder.on.ca wrote:

Hi, I am seeing more DC motors here and there. Our replaced vacuum power head has tiny DC motor, light and more powerful, DW has DC motor, GDO has DC motor, furnace has DC blower motor...
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