Sterling prices.

[dennis]

Are sterling prices falling because we might vote leave and if so why do leavers keep saying it will go up if we leave?

[Nightjar]

Yes.

I refer you to Mandy Rice Davies.

[The Natural Philosopher]

No.

In fact sterling has been rising steadily in step with the swing towards brexit...

So its just another remainer lie, really.

...to understand every utterance of the remainers.

And that is fundamentally what the team on Sky News said after Alsitair Darling had woffled his way through some kind of doom and gloom forecast.

Only if you understand that a whole political class and their gravy train riders' very existence is threatened by this referendum, can you realise exactly how far the public sector troughers will go in lies and deception to preserve the status quo.

And of course, if the market speculators like anything, is volatility. Bigging up perceived risks and pushing sterling/Euro futures is a sure way to make easy money.

There is a strong counter case that the currency most at risk from Brexit is the Euro, whose very existence and credibility is threatened by Brexit.

[Mark Allread]

"£20bn was wiped off the FTSE 100 index

More than £20bn was wiped off the FTSE 100 index yesterday and the pound fell as the markets took fright over the prospect of Leave vote.

Buoyant Leave campaigners will set out detailed plans today for how a Brexit would play out."

Taken from inews site.

[Tim Streater]

I couldn't believe Osbourne this morning on Today. His position essentially seems to be that they offered a referendum while having no plan as to what to do in the event of an exit vote. So now at the last minute (just in time for polling day) comes this threat of an emergency budget to deal with it.

Hmmm, Just-In-Time threats, eh? He must have learnt something, then, from supply industries.

[Mark Allread]

But that same site also says: "British Pound to Remain Under Notable Pressure Over Coming 10 Days

Sterling is starting to really feel the heat as markets look to exit the GBP market ahead of the June 23rd vote.

However, there is a must-read piece on Pound Sterling Live today that reports a view that the GBP/EUR will bounce sharply to 1.40 in the days following Brexit.

Why? Because the euro exchange rate complex has more to lose from Brexit than the pound does argues NAB?s Nick Parsons in an interview with spread betting firm IG.

Looking ahead to the next few days, uncertainty is the buzzword.

?Sterling is sliding away as we move ever closer to the EU referendum on the 23rd. Who knows which way the vote will go but sterling is being undermined by the uncertainty and this isn?t likely to change in the next ten days,? says Charles Purdy at Smart Currency Business.

and "On the potential future direction of the sterling-dollar exchange rate Barclays write:

The recent sell-off on increased trading volumes endorses our bearish view.

We expect resistance in the 1.4670 area to cap a move towards 1.4330 and then lower towards the 1.4005 area."

No. See also

[tim...]

Anyone with any sense knows that if there is a Leave vote Osbourne is toast and won't be presenting Government anything.

tim

[The Natural Philosopher]

Actually everything you say can be condensed into one statement:

"No one really knows WTF will happen either way" and "lots of lovely volatility in the markets right now for speculators to make fortunes with"

[Nightjar]

That is only to June 7th. It has been dropping over the past couple of days. However, even more important is the volatility, which is now nearly as high as it was during the 2008 banking crisis.

[tim...]

Of course there will be a market crash after a Leave vote

It will be a self fulfilling prophesy.

TPTB have gone out of their way to fiddle the figures to show that everything is bad if we vote Leave, instead of coming up with a rational consideration of some of the positive things. So if we do vote to Leave, the Markets will automatically believe that everything is bad and will crash.

You reap what you sow

Unfortunately, it is the rest of us who have to pick up from this mess.

It need not have been this way, but it's too late now IMHO.

tim

[Andy Cap]

I'm fairly certain that the rate can be manipulated to send the signal the remainers want. The bottom line is independence or state of the USE. The would have been the honest question and if the answer is leave, then Osborne should be putting his heart and soul into making it work, not threatening the electorate.

[Robin]

Of course we'll never know how much of this is because the PM refused to allow contingency planning by the civil service for a ?Brexit". So we have had lots of forecasts from officials of the horrendous effects of BREXIT following a period when the same officials were not allow to work on how best to plan and manage a BREXIT.

[GB]

Surely, using an out of date graph to make a false point is a lie? Since your 7 June graph was produced, Sterling has fallen 3c against the USD. It's currently $1.4196, which is almost the lowest it has been in the last year, whereas your graph shows 1.45. In currency terms, a move of

3c in a week is massive.

I have seen estimates of a 30% drop in sterling if we Brexit. That may or may not turn out to be true, but even an increased chance of Brexit has pushed Sterling down 2% in a week, so 30% may not be too far out.

What's the effect of a 30% fall? A fairly massive inflationary kick, for a start. So, interest rates will go up. In theory, UK manufacturing becomes highly competitive, but there's a long lag before output picks up, and in the meantime the balance of payments suffers. Plus, your hols in Benidorm will cost a lot more.

This is all the factual stuff Remainers have been talking about, and which you simply claim is a lie. Shame on you, really.

[Bosco Green]

Like hell it is when if Britain leaves they EU they get to decide policy again.

can you

[The Natural Philosopher]

Course it is. Its a magnificent opportunity to make money out of perceived uncertainty.

Its a bit like making a meal out of the fact that bookie takings peak before the Grand National.

Fort the last few months there has been an unrelenting war for hearts and minds over this issue, by some parties with deep pockets and deep self interest. Of course that sort of spend and that sort of propaganda will have an effect, and the markets love it!

Project Fear has been completely about making the issue even bigger than it is.

And its an entirely brexit position that is revealed, Should governments really have so much involvement with commerce that the mere threat of a change can adversely affect an entire continents economy?

Of course not. Governments shouldn't be nearly so involved with commerce, is is literally none of their business.

And to get away from it being their business, is our business.

[The Natural Philosopher]

No. They will go down.

Interest rate rises cause inflation.

Why do you think we have 'quantitative easing' ? To keep inflation down.

and 30% fall in sterling would make any british export led industry have a massive leap in profits, if those are booked in sterling.

[The Natural Philosopher]

Indeed so, but their ability to decide policy unhampered by the next elections outcome is massively reduced.

The British public have been woken up. They wont be lulled back to sleep so easily.

[Capitol]

No, sterling is higher now than it was earlier in the year. It is much higher than 40 years ago. The Euro and dollar have dropped about twice as much against the yen recently as i recall. It has no immediate effect as all the big buyers are forward hedged against currency fluctuations anyway. Air fares from Ryanair and Easyjet are forecast by O'leary to fall as a result of lower oil costs and competition. He is rarely wrong.

[Capitol]

How much was wiped off the US and German stock exchanges? The value of your investments can go down as well as up.

[Nightjar]

The uncertainty is very real. What happens if we stay is fairly predictable. However, the Leave campaign has persistently failed to put forward any credible figures for what is going to happen if we leave.

...

The simple answer to that would be for the Leave campaign to set out hard proposals for how they would handle Brexit. They still haven't done so.