So we're not all going to die, after all.

https://judithcurry.com/2020/03/25/covid-19-updated-data-implies-that-uk-modelling-hugely-overestimates-the-expected-death-rates-from-infection/
or https://tinyurl.com/yx7tbjut
"Based on the Diamond Princess data, the COVID-19 fatality rates by age-group assumed by Ferguson et al. appear to be far too pessimistic for all 60+ age groups, where the vast bulk of fatalities are projected to occur. It is quite possible that they are also too pessimistic for younger age groups as well, but unfortunately the Diamond Princess data are uninformative about death rates below age 60."
--

Chris

Add pictures here
<% if( /^image/.test(type) ){ %>
<% } %>
<%-name%>
Add image file
Upload
Chris Hogg wrote:

So the conclusion is "young people don't go on cruises"?
Add pictures here
<% if( /^image/.test(type) ){ %>
<% } %>
<%-name%>
Add image file
Upload
On 26/03/2020 07:59, Andy Burns wrote:

They are called "crew"
Add pictures here
<% if( /^image/.test(type) ){ %>
<% } %>
<%-name%>
Add image file
Upload
On 26/03/2020 09:10, newshound wrote:

ex-crew. Many are going to be unemployed because they are not employed in this country. Ditto guest workers in the middle east who have a far ominous future.
Add pictures here
<% if( /^image/.test(type) ){ %>
<% } %>
<%-name%>
Add image file
Upload

There is a report in the Telegraph from Prof Ferguson, who is advising Boris, and originally scared Pamela et al silly with his predictions.
Now he has revised his numbers to ‘only’ 20,000, probably far less, 2/3 of which would have died anyway within 9 mths. Not trivial of course and not a reason to follow advice etc but rather less serious than the earlier numbers.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/25/two-thirds-patients-die-coronavirus-would-have-died-year-anyway/
Those who generated these scare stories without considering whether their numbers were remotely plausible, the media which magnified them, not to mention the gullible who fused to examine them sensibly and headed off to buy trolley loads of loo roll, have a lot to answer for and certainly no justification for criticising Boris.
It is clear for the vast majority infected, it isn’t serious- some don’t even know. The list of prior conditions is much less far reaching than initially thought it seems and relative youth certainly isn’t any guarantee - a number of victims (fatalities) have been under 40 and not had any known prior conditions.
Looking at the ship data, you have to ask why prisoners are being released. By all means ensure the guards are safe, give them guns and station them at strategic places to ensure there are no escapes. Then leave things to take their course.
Anyone who hasn’t read the story of the UK case zero should do so. You may wish to avoid eating first, the lack of hygiene it sense it relates among millennials is really stomach churning.
Add pictures here
<% if( /^image/.test(type) ){ %>
<% } %>
<%-name%>
Add image file
Upload
On 26/03/2020 08:25, Brian Reay wrote:

well the early scare stores have resulted in my freezers being packed full before the panic ensued and also made me isolate very early on....more the 7th March Saturday night BBC moral maze than panic stories ....
Add pictures here
<% if( /^image/.test(type) ){ %>
<% } %>
<%-name%>
Add image file
Upload

There are risks Jim, certainly for people in your position etc, and I’m not suggesting the gov advice is wrong etc. It is the panic which has been stirred up I have always questioned and the criticism of the gov policy which, all in all, has been pretty good.
Add pictures here
<% if( /^image/.test(type) ){ %>
<% } %>
<%-name%>
Add image file
Upload
On 26/03/2020 09:26, Brian Reay wrote:

you can't beat a good panic ....
Add pictures here
<% if( /^image/.test(type) ){ %>
<% } %>
<%-name%>
Add image file
Upload
On 26/03/2020 11:06, Jim GM4DHJ ... wrote:

loved the bread and power cuts panics of the early 70's...
Add pictures here
<% if( /^image/.test(type) ){ %>
<% } %>
<%-name%>
Add image file
Upload
On 26/03/2020 09:26, Brian Reay wrote:

It's been 'good' in the sense that they quickly abandoned the 'kill the wrinklies' policy aka 'herd immunity' and replaced it with a less obvious one.
--
Spike

Add pictures here
<% if( /^image/.test(type) ){ %>
<% } %>
<%-name%>
Add image file
Upload
On 26/03/2020 11:50, Spike wrote:

Most of the people who have already died had underlying conditions and were 'expected' to die in the next couple of years anyway.
Add pictures here
<% if( /^image/.test(type) ){ %>
<% } %>
<%-name%>
Add image file
Upload
On 26/03/2020 08:25, Brian Reay wrote: ... snipped

A search for "UK case zero" turned-up a story about a chap who had been skiing, but nothing stomache churning ... link?
Add pictures here
<% if( /^image/.test(type) ){ %>
<% } %>
<%-name%>
Add image file
Upload
On 08:25 26 Mar 2020, Brian Reay said:

Taking action and implementing precautions is not the same as being scared silly.
As Keynes said:
"When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do?"
Also don't forget:
"All models are wrong, but some are useful".
I can understand you feel the need to clutch at straws in order to feel safe and will seek out any chink of evidence that Covid is not dangerous. However the Italian experience, which the UK has avoided so far, is that 15% of their positives had to be hospitalised and most of those who are put on ventilators die. It's so contagious that 10 to 20 percent of hospital staff treating infected patients contract the virus despite precautions.
The cost of inconvenience/money from over-reacting is far less than the cost of lives from under-reacting. Hopefully we'll prevent any of the disaster scenarios and then the sceptics will no doubt say no action was ever necessary. It all reminds me of the following parable.
This story is of a Chinese doctor, some 2,000-3,000 years ago, renowned as a physician and for his skill and knowledge of medicines and his ability to heal even the most deadly disease, he was asked why he was so much better than is two brothers, who were also doctors.
His answer is:
"My first brother heals sickness before it even develops, so his methods appear hidden, his science art and he is known only within our village.
My second brother deals with illnesses while they are minor, preventing sickness from getting worse and returning the body to health.
I deal with sicknesses when they have reached the level of disease and threaten to destroy the organism of which they are a part. This requires numerous medicines, and skill and knowledge in their use. For this reason my name has become famous throughout the kingdom and I have been asked to be physician to the king.
Yet my first brother has the knowledge to deal with sicknesses before they arise and my second brother is able to treat them at an early stage and prevent them getting worse. Though my fame has spread throughout the land, their knowledge and effectiveness is greater."
From: https://www.mediate.com/articles/phillipsB3.cfm
Add pictures here
<% if( /^image/.test(type) ){ %>
<% } %>
<%-name%>
Add image file
Upload

That's only positives who are identified as such, by already showing symptoms

Which depends on number of ventilators. Double the number of ventilators and only half of the people put on ventilators die,

As hospital staff treating infected patients are clearly the most at risk of all groups, by a considerablr margin, its fairly evident that the "precautions" can't have been sufficient in all cases.

The true cost in inconvenience/money from over-reacting hasn't yet been quantified. And probably won't be for years to come. And so all such claims simply amount to nothing more than hand waving.
michael adams
...
Add pictures here
<% if( /^image/.test(type) ){ %>
<% } %>
<%-name%>
Add image file
Upload

Not so. They tend to reserve ventilators for those most likely to survive. There may be a few more survivors from young people previously not quite ill enough to get on ICU, but that effect will be swamped by the increasing number treated on ICU from the cohort currently left to (almost certainly) die. The number dying unventilated, in this country at least, is much greater than the number dying on ICU. By international standards we have grossly inadequate (even in normal times) intensive care facilities.

--

Roger Hayter

Add pictures here
<% if( /^image/.test(type) ){ %>
<% } %>
<%-name%>
Add image file
Upload
On 12:36 26 Mar 2020, Roger Hayter said:

Michael deals only in direct arithmetic relationships. Geometric or exponential functions are a closed book to him.
Add pictures here
<% if( /^image/.test(type) ){ %>
<% } %>
<%-name%>
Add image file
Upload
"Pamela - "most of those who are put on ventilators die".
Sucking up to Roger now, eh Pammy ?
The direct arithmetic relationships with Turnip and Richard not work out then ?
Better luck next time eh ?
michael adams
...
Add pictures here
<% if( /^image/.test(type) ){ %>
<% } %>
<%-name%>
Add image file
Upload
On 20:16 26 Mar 2020, michael adams said:

Stop yapping like a little dog trying to impress the big dogs.
Add pictures here
<% if( /^image/.test(type) ){ %>
<% } %>
<%-name%>
Add image file
Upload
wrote:

Seeking to impress complete strangers would seem to be more in your line actually; given that I'm not the one claiming to be a former lecturer in statistics
So do you like dogs then, Pammy ?
It's always nice to have something to talk to that doesn't answer back, isn't it ?
As long as you're a former lecturer in statistics to Rover, Bonzo, or whatever his name is, then who cares what anyone else thinks ?
Woof Woof !
michael adams
...
Add pictures here
<% if( /^image/.test(type) ){ %>
<% } %>
<%-name%>
Add image file
Upload
wrote:

That’s not why little dogs yap at big dogs.
Add pictures here
<% if( /^image/.test(type) ){ %>
<% } %>
<%-name%>
Add image file
Upload

HomeOwnersHub.com is a website for homeowners and building and maintenance pros. It is not affiliated with any of the manufacturers or service providers discussed here. All logos and trade names are the property of their respective owners.