"Based on the Diamond Princess data, the COVID-19 fatality rates by
age-group assumed by Ferguson et al. appear to be far too pessimistic
for all 60+ age groups, where the vast bulk of fatalities are
projected to occur. It is quite possible that they are also too
pessimistic for younger age groups as well, but unfortunately the
Diamond Princess data are uninformative about death rates below age
There is a report in the Telegraph from Prof Ferguson, who is advising
Boris, and originally scared Pamela et al silly with his predictions.
Now he has revised his numbers to ‘only’ 20,000, probably far less, 2/3 of
which would have died anyway within 9 mths. Not trivial of course and not
a reason to follow advice etc but rather less serious than the earlier
Those who generated these scare stories without considering whether their
numbers were remotely plausible, the media which magnified them, not to
mention the gullible who fused to examine them sensibly and headed off to
buy trolley loads of loo roll, have a lot to answer for and certainly no
justification for criticising Boris.
It is clear for the vast majority infected, it isn’t serious- some don’t
The list of prior conditions is much less far reaching than initially
thought it seems and relative youth certainly isn’t any guarantee - a
number of victims (fatalities) have been under 40 and not had any known
Looking at the ship data, you have to ask why prisoners are being released.
By all means ensure the guards are safe, give them guns and station them at
strategic places to ensure there are no escapes. Then leave things to take
Anyone who hasn’t read the story of the UK case zero should do so. You may
wish to avoid eating first, the lack of hygiene it sense it relates among
millennials is really stomach churning.
well the early scare stores have resulted in my freezers being packed
full before the panic ensued and also made me isolate very early
on....more the 7th March Saturday night BBC moral maze than panic
There are risks Jim, certainly for people in your position etc, and I’m not
suggesting the gov advice is wrong etc. It is the panic which has been
stirred up I have always questioned and the criticism of the gov policy
which, all in all, has been pretty good.
Taking action and implementing precautions is not the same as being scared
As Keynes said:
"When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do?"
Also don't forget:
"All models are wrong, but some are useful".
I can understand you feel the need to clutch at straws in order to feel
safe and will seek out any chink of evidence that Covid is not dangerous.
However the Italian experience, which the UK has avoided so far, is that
15% of their positives had to be hospitalised and most of those who are
put on ventilators die. It's so contagious that 10 to 20 percent of
hospital staff treating infected patients contract the virus despite
The cost of inconvenience/money from over-reacting is far less than the
cost of lives from under-reacting. Hopefully we'll prevent any of the
disaster scenarios and then the sceptics will no doubt say no action was
ever necessary. It all reminds me of the following parable.
This story is of a Chinese doctor, some 2,000-3,000 years ago, renowned
as a physician and for his skill and knowledge of medicines and his
ability to heal even the most deadly disease, he was asked why he was
so much better than is two brothers, who were also doctors.
His answer is:
"My first brother heals sickness before it even develops, so his
methods appear hidden, his science art and he is known only within our
My second brother deals with illnesses while they are minor, preventing
sickness from getting worse and returning the body to health.
I deal with sicknesses when they have reached the level of disease and
threaten to destroy the organism of which they are a part. This
requires numerous medicines, and skill and knowledge in their use. For
this reason my name has become famous throughout the kingdom and I have
been asked to be physician to the king.
Yet my first brother has the knowledge to deal with sicknesses before
they arise and my second brother is able to treat them at an early
stage and prevent them getting worse. Though my fame has spread
throughout the land, their knowledge and effectiveness is greater."
That's only positives who are identified as such, by already
Which depends on number of ventilators. Double the number of
ventilators and only half of the people put on ventilators die,
As hospital staff treating infected patients are clearly the most
at risk of all groups, by a considerablr margin, its fairly evident
that the "precautions" can't have been sufficient in all cases.
The true cost in inconvenience/money from over-reacting hasn't yet been
quantified. And probably won't be for years to come. And so all such claims
simply amount to nothing more than hand waving.
Not so. They tend to reserve ventilators for those most likely to
survive. There may be a few more survivors from young people
previously not quite ill enough to get on ICU, but that effect will be
swamped by the increasing number treated on ICU from the cohort
currently left to (almost certainly) die. The number dying
unventilated, in this country at least, is much greater than the number
dying on ICU. By international standards we have grossly inadequate
(even in normal times) intensive care facilities.
"Pamela - "most of those who are put on ventilators die".
Sucking up to Roger now, eh Pammy ?
The direct arithmetic relationships with Turnip and Richard not work
out then ?
Better luck next time eh ?
Seeking to impress complete strangers would seem to be more in
your line actually; given that I'm not the one claiming to be
a former lecturer in statistics
So do you like dogs then, Pammy ?
It's always nice to have something to talk to that doesn't
answer back, isn't it ?
As long as you're a former lecturer in statistics to Rover,
Bonzo, or whatever his name is, then who cares what anyone else
Woof Woof !
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