Re: OTish. Peak oil.

harry ( snipped-for-privacy@aol.com) wibbled on Thursday 10 February 2011 07:32:

Oil isn't much of a problem rearding electricity generation, but on that note we should not be burning gas for the same like it's going out of fashion. The solution here is to stop buggering about and start building some nukes like they should have started 20 years ago, except they were all too wet.
Oil will be a big problem for cars and indutry though. And that problem is not solved.
Cars - still the batteries. Motor and control technologies have been ready for years (if in part high power motors and control electronics have been well developed for trains so cars are easy). We just need a method to carry around a dense store of electricity - which at least is being researched constantly for mobile electronics - but at the moment the densest and most convenient way to cary energy happens to be liquid fuels.
Saudi - wouldn't surprise me if they were lying to keep prices up - "oh no we're running out". 2 years later: "oh look, we've found a bit more - but only a bit, so it's going to cost you". Repeat for some decades...
--
Tim Watts

Add pictures here
<% if( /^image/.test(type) ){ %>
<% } %>
<%-name%>
Add image file
Upload

With enough cheap nukes we can make it, or a good enough substitute.
MBQ
Add pictures here
<% if( /^image/.test(type) ){ %>
<% } %>
<%-name%>
Add image file
Upload
Figures for oil reserve are not "oil in the ground", they are dependent on the extraction method whose economics are dependent on oil price.
High oil prices permit costly extractive methods to be used which in turn increases the effective reserve and pushes back the "Peak Oil Date". For example, gas & oil shale reserves in USA & Canada are both enormous and profitable to extract at current prices. Likewise wells such as North Sea that were expected to be defunct now are still providing supply due to a high oil price offsetting the cost of enhanced extraction techniques.
There is a high degree of speculation with oil, and I suspect deliberate manipulation to make alternative extraction methods economic. You would not be mining sands & shale at 12$ per barrel. Conversely a puzzle is why would you build "The World" if supply were known to remain low cost far into 2050?
A lot of smoke and mirrors, as others have said we should be processing our coal and building nukes. Having to convert sterling into dollars to import energy is not the brightest thing we could do, digging energy out of the ground is a far more rational solution when you are sitting on a warehouse of the stuff which you only need to pay to extract.
There is too much vested interest in terms of disrupting existing supply chains.
Add pictures here
<% if( /^image/.test(type) ){ %>
<% } %>
<%-name%>
Add image file
Upload
js.b1 wrote:

Correct. A LOT of S American and north American/canadian resources are break-even at around $70 a barrel.
Saudis deliberately limit production rate to keep prices high: this maximises the value of what they have left in the ground.
Even if they lose market share.

Yup. And in bloody stupid windpower.
I don't personally like coal..its dirty and dangerous and makes a LOT of CO2. Nuclear far safer and less environmentally destructive.
Add pictures here
<% if( /^image/.test(type) ){ %>
<% } %>
<%-name%>
Add image file
Upload
On 11/02/2011 11:50, The Natural Philosopher wrote: ...

Underground gasification of coal removes the safety issues, allows difficult seams to be exploited, reduces SO2 and NO outputs and can give somewhere to store CO2 afterwards.
Colin Bignell
Add pictures here
<% if( /^image/.test(type) ){ %>
<% } %>
<%-name%>
Add image file
Upload

Yes, that has a lot of potential, really. I am a bit bothered about turning seams underground into red hot chambers of hot gas tho.
Sounds a bit dangerous to me.

Add pictures here
<% if( /^image/.test(type) ){ %>
<% } %>
<%-name%>
Add image file
Upload
Tim Watts wrote:

There's at least 300 years of coal in the UK at 1980 consumption levels. There's little you can do with coal other than burn it for heat. Coal should be used to generate electricity, gas should be piped to homes for home heating, oil should be used to make plastics. It's madness burning gas to make electricity when we already have a distribution system to get its energy to the consumption point.
JGH
Add pictures here
<% if( /^image/.test(type) ){ %>
<% } %>
<%-name%>
Add image file
Upload

Coal can yield both gas and fuel oil, leaving smokeless coke. So it pretty much covers all bases. Dirty fume output can now be treated as a chemical source rather than released untouched, albeit at a price.
Peak oil is a hypothesis based on failing to understand the nature of the figures. In short, exploration is expensive, so only so many years is worth exploring for.
Anyone know anything about gas hydrate reserves?
NT
Add pictures here
<% if( /^image/.test(type) ){ %>
<% } %>
<%-name%>
Add image file
Upload
Tabby wrote:

Not quite true.
We will never run out of oil, but two points the curve of oil extraction are salient and meaningful.
1/. The point at which it gets so expensive its cheaper to use something else. This is 'peak oil' where world production starts to FALL.
2/. The point at which it takes more energy to extract than it produces when burnt. This is much later on, and marks the true end of oil as a fuel. But not necessarily as a chemical feedstock for plastics etc.
The peak oil proposition si that we are now at the point where world consumption and production of oil has, or is about to, peak.

try theoildrum.
Or whatever that site is called.
Very informed site on all matters petrochemical.

Add pictures here
<% if( /^image/.test(type) ){ %>
<% } %>
<%-name%>
Add image file
Upload
wrote:

Indeed, and this proposition is based on misinterpretation of oil reserve figures.

NT
Add pictures here
<% if( /^image/.test(type) ){ %>
<% } %>
<%-name%>
Add image file
Upload
jgharston ( snipped-for-privacy@arcade.demon.co.uk) wibbled on Thursday 10 February 2011 11:00:

Exactly my mate's attitude during privatisation - he worked for CEGB.
"Coal and nuclear for base load, gas for rapid response to demand and Dinorwig for system stabilisation".
Unfortunately, the idiot tories flooged it off priced deliberately so that the then cheapness of gas made the whole thing look attractive for sale.
Isn't it funny that whilst Blair was happy to ignore screaming crowds of protestors over Iraq2 and trample all over everyone who objected to his draconian regime of new regulations, he couldn't use that pig headedness for something useful and tell the anti-nuke and nimby lobbies to feck off, they were getting 15 new nuclear power stations distributed around the grid like it or not.
We'd have had them by now, or be very close.
Privatisation of electricity has been nearly as bad as the railways. The CEGB reaserch centre closed down (I wonder who develops their technology now?), I get charged £35 for a fuse pull, people are getting charged silly money for new supplies and the southeast MV and LV networks have just been sold to a Hong Kong company FFS.
--
Tim Watts

Add pictures here
<% if( /^image/.test(type) ){ %>
<% } %>
<%-name%>
Add image file
Upload
On 10/02/2011 13:02, Tim Watts wrote:
...

I don't see any of the private companies reducing prices to avoid making too much profit, as we were required to when I worked for the nationalised industry.
Colin Bignell
Add pictures here
<% if( /^image/.test(type) ){ %>
<% } %>
<%-name%>
Add image file
Upload
(%EMAIL) wibbled on Thursday 10 February 2011 13:26:

Ditto railways.
Southeastern have hiked prices round here by >10% this year, taken *an extra* 25 million PA in taxpayer subsidies and yet still manage to have paid 44 million over 3 years in dividends as well as obscene bonuses to directors.
So there you go. As predicted, privatisation was a gigantic flop. Even the excuse that it would allow the gov to wash its hands of managing anything is crap - the DoT interferes with the railways constantly not to mention Network Rail is now wholly state owned because the privatised effort fecked up big time.
If you go up to the MD of Southeastern as I did a couple of weeks back and give him an earful re 1st paragraph, all you get is: we have a duty to shareholders, we only make 1% profit [my heart bleeds] and we're allowed to put up the prices by the franchise [so stuff you].
That's why if you follow Twitter on #southeastern you will learn new swear words every day - and discover a whole bunch of people are barraging MPs and councillors with letters and emails. Dispatches is doing a programme soon on the state of the railways - air time March sometime probably.
--
Tim Watts

Add pictures here
<% if( /^image/.test(type) ){ %>
<% } %>
<%-name%>
Add image file
Upload

They are regulated. is it OFGEN?

Add pictures here
<% if( /^image/.test(type) ){ %>
<% } %>
<%-name%>
Add image file
Upload
On 10/02/2011 13:02, Tim Watts wrote:

For a man to come out and pull a fuse at your house? Seems pretty reasonable.
Add pictures here
<% if( /^image/.test(type) ){ %>
<% } %>
<%-name%>
Add image file
Upload
Clive George ( snipped-for-privacy@xxxx-x.fsnet.co.uk) wibbled on Thursday 10 February 2011 15:14:

EDF, cutout fuse...
--
Tim Watts

Add pictures here
<% if( /^image/.test(type) ){ %>
<% } %>
<%-name%>
Add image file
Upload
On 10/02/2011 16:20, Tim Watts wrote:

Still confused - where is the cutout fuse (showing ignorance, I know :-) )
Add pictures here
<% if( /^image/.test(type) ){ %>
<% } %>
<%-name%>
Add image file
Upload
Clive George ( snipped-for-privacy@xxxx-x.fsnet.co.uk) wibbled on Thursday 10 February 2011 16:24:

The main fuse next to (usually) the meter - the one that has EDF seals on so I am not meant to be pulling it myself.
--
Tim Watts

Add pictures here
<% if( /^image/.test(type) ){ %>
<% } %>
<%-name%>
Add image file
Upload
On 10/02/2011 18:29, Tim Watts wrote:

Right, it is the one I thought it might be. 35 quid is a fair charge for that. It's not the work itself which costs the money, it's the getting the man out there to do it - ie callout.
Since this is a DIY group, what are the options to DIY this? If the seals are bust, how much do the leccy people complain?
Add pictures here
<% if( /^image/.test(type) ){ %>
<% } %>
<%-name%>
Add image file
Upload
Clive George ( snipped-for-privacy@xxxx-x.fsnet.co.uk) wibbled on Thursday 10 February 2011 18:46:

I don't think it is - when they have the option to install an isolator, which they refuse to. I took the precaution of adding exactly the isolator they would if they did, into their meter cabinet. There was some "debate" when the bloke came back to refit the fuse, but he saw my POV in the end.
I have the means to isolate my water at the road, my gas at the meter - if EDF are too cheap to offer an isolator as standard, it's not my fault.

It depends.
If you have some manky old crap with paper/oil insulated cable, you would be well advised not to touch it - there have been cases of:
1) Cutout falling off the wall when fuse pulled;
1a) Then bending the incoming cable where the paper has become dry and brittle involving a large bang with the potntial to cause horrific burns.
2) The cutout casing breaking up leaving live parts.
If it's new ish (like less than 20 years old) you are probably fine as long as the company don't have any recollection of having reinstalled the seals recently - in which case you might get into trouble if they are sure you broke then rather than slightly suspicios.
--
Tim Watts

Add pictures here
<% if( /^image/.test(type) ){ %>
<% } %>
<%-name%>
Add image file
Upload

HomeOwnersHub.com is a website for homeowners and building and maintenance pros. It is not affiliated with any of the manufacturers or service providers discussed here. All logos and trade names are the property of their respective owners.