OT peak oil

https://beta.tradingfloor.com/posts/peak-oil-signals-worlds-least-know-521368144?utm_source=Outbrain&utm_medium=Native%20Advertising&utm_campaign=TF%20Beta%20Launch
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On Thursday, April 3, 2014 8:47:46 AM UTC+1, harry wrote:

far too many dodgy assumptions
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On 03/04/2014 09:08, snipped-for-privacy@care2.com wrote:

Not least the basic assumption of peak oil - that proven oil reserves remain fixed.
Colin Bignell
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On 03/04/14 12:11, Nightjar wrote:

That is not actually an assumption of peak oil.
The actual assumption of peak oil is that at some point oil will get so expensive to extract that something else will be cheaper.
Nuclear power is ALREADY cheaper than oil, but not yet gas or coal. Or rather it used to e cheaper than gas and coal but got made more expensive my a mass of regulations that do nothing to improve safety,. but just pushed up the time and expense of getting a new plant online.
When something else is cheaper than oil, oil will cease to be pumped for that particular purpose.
I did a few rough calcs on this, and at around $300 a barrel (we are around $100 now) it is actually cheaper to synthesise hydrocarbons from CO2 and water with nuclear power than to drill for it.
The widely held myth is that peak oil represents no more oil being left in the ground. This is a myth. Peak oil is simply about the economics of extraction. How many of us faced with - say - £1000 to fill up the car wouldn't instead take the (nuclear electric) train, walk or cycle?
So consumption falls as the price rises.
When total *global* consumption starts to fall that IS peak oil.
Nothing to do with how much is left in the ground. Everything to do with how much it costs to get it out *compared with the next best thing*.
Neither is peak oil a catastrophic sudden event. Its just a point of interest in a smooth curve. Oil will continue to be pumped long past peak oil.
In the end its futile to discuss it. What will happen is what will happen. Slowly the economics of power and energy will dictate a move away from oil to coal, gas and nuclear power, because the are in MANY situations the 'next best thing'
WE dont burn oil in power stations much any more because its more expensive than gas coal and nuclear, and they work extremely well in power stations. They just don't work very well in cars. aeroplanes and tanks..
Peak oil for electricity generation has come and gone, as it has for at least UK railways too.
Its come and gone for me personally in my cars. Cant afford to drive anywhere so I stay at home..

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On 03/04/14 12:38, The Natural Philosopher wrote:

I'd love to take the (indirectly) nuclear powered train - and use my nuclear charged rechargeable car (in about 10 years when the batteries get really good). But sadly I share the country with a bunch of greenmunching NIMBY idiots.
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On 03/04/14 13:21, Tim Watts wrote:

And continue to vote for parties that lend them their ears..in the mistaken belief that it will win them elections and the correct beliefe that they can line their nests with the green dollars.
Until they get voted out, anyway.
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On 03/04/2014 13:21, Tim Watts wrote: ...

Move to France :-)
Colin Bignell
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On 03/04/14 18:43, Nightjar wrote:

Unfortunately its likeloy still to be run by an even worse bunch of Cnuts than here.

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On 03/04/2014 19:20, The Natural Philosopher wrote:

IME the French are fine, provided you understand the culture, and at least their power is almost entirely nuclear.
Colin Bignell
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On 03/04/14 19:38, Nightjar wrote:

Have you ever tried doing business there? They are openly and unashamedly racist.
British? double the taxes, and twice the price charged to a frenchman.

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Ineptocracy

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On 03/04/2014 19:48, The Natural Philosopher wrote:

I have dealt with tradesmen in France and have been pleasantly surprised at their attitude, including not being charged even a call-out fee when a plumber was unable to fix a problem for me.
Perhaps you forgot to shake hands?
Colin Bignell
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On 03/04/2014 18:43, Nightjar wrote:

Unfortunately the French are intent on throwing away the huge advantage the have when it comes to CO2-free energy. It's the announced policy of the current government to reduce nuclear power from 75% of electrical generation (most of the rest is hydro) to 50% and then to do away with it altogether in the long term.
Already that beautiful country is becoming home to vast arrays of turbines, to the extent that I no longer go there; I used to spend a month there every year for 30 years. I had quite a row with an Alsatian (a man from Alsace not the dog), he was convinced that solar and wind was the solution to everything.
Another Dave
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On Thursday, April 3, 2014 12:11:46 PM UTC+1, Nightjar wrote:

-521368144?utm_source=Outbrain&utm_medium=Native%20Advertising&utm_camp aign=TF%20Beta%20Launch

I don't think that's the assumption at all.
But AIUI, since the 1960s, we (the world) have discovered less oil (almost ) each year than we discovered in the previous year. In addition, since the 1980s, we have burned more oil each year than we found in that year (by a factor of about 6x and increasing year by year).
Robert
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On 03/04/14 16:03, RobertL wrote:

But that is still not the point: the point is that oil PRICES in real terms keep rising as each new oil extraction technology is more expensive, and uses more energy, than the last. At some point it will simply use more energy to get out than it delivers when burnt, and that is essentially the end of oil as a de facto energy source.
Still handy for making plastics though and as a rather more expensive materials chemical feedstock.
If you strip out paranoid regulatory bollocks the cheapest ENERGY on the planet is in fact nuclear.
by a factor of between ten and one hundred in terms or cost of raw extraction of uranium and thorium.
Bang that into modular mass produced and therefore once and once only certified reactors, and its electricity at 2p a unit which is like oil at 20p a litre. (currently net of taxes nearer 60p a liter).
And that electricity will displace oil and gas in vast swathes of commercial domestic and industrial usage.
And unlike other energy we already HAVE the means to distribute it, although not yet in the quantities required.
However that is not the end of oil because we don't have and never will have batteries that can match the power density *and* cost *and* safety balance of a tank of diesel fuel.
But it DOES means that for those applications where liquid hydrocarbon fuel is essential we can set an upper limit on the price its worth extracting oil for fuel at, and that's when its MORE expensive than syndiesel made with (off peak) nuclear electricity.
I'd say that IF we had the nuclear capacity at the sorts or prices it costs shorn of useless bureaucratic interference and needless paranoia, we are about at that crossover point now.
However we wont shed the needless bureaucracy and paranoia here - that will happen in the far east and no doubt they will be making diesel on a grand scale powered by nukes a decade before we do.
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wrote:

But coal is much more suitable for that once oil become very expensive to get.

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On 03/04/2014 16:03, RobertL wrote:

It is an essential part of the peak oil hypothesis. That is why it has had one successful prediction, US oil in the early 1970s when conditions were virtually unchanged since it was proposed in the 1950s, and none after, when we discovered that the reserves varied according to the price of oil, which changed what it was economic to extract, and the state of extraction technology.

You mean excluding the recent discovery of probably as much oil as there is in Saudi Arabia under the Australian desert and other finds in the US that, prior to the Australian find, were seen as the largest in 50 years?
Colin Bignell
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wrote:

Bullshit.

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On 03/04/2014 19:49, Rod Speed wrote:

...

Jealous that you don't own land around Coober Pedy?
Colin Bignell
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There is nothing like that around Coober Pedy.
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On 03/04/2014 20:18, Rod Speed wrote:

http://moneymorning.com/articles/this-massive-discovery-has-put-the-saudis-into-a-panic/
Colin Bignell
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