Looks like my panic over the boiler is unwarranted due to prospective higher temps over Xmas!

My 16-day forecast from today gives night-time temps three or four degrees above zero from 20/Dec/12 to 27/Dec/12!
http://www.theweatheroutlook.com /
The boiler is working far better since a new capacitor was fitted. 34 heating events since then and 8 lockouts.
But if the temps are above freezing, I won't have to worry.
Of course, forecasts can be wrong...
Anyone else want to confirm an expected "warm" Christmas? (This is the Fens, BTW, roughly midway between Spalding and King's Lynn.)
MM
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On 12/12/2012 19:00, MM wrote:

Just about where cold winds from the Arctic usually hit first then.
I rate weather forecasts as follows:
Up to 6 hours ahead: almost always accurate Up to 12 hours ahead: most often correct Up to 24 hours ahead: more often than not correct Up to 3 days ahead: sometimes a useful guide Up to 5 days ahead: liable to change More than 5 days ahead: unreliable.
Colin Bignell
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Indeed, the forecast at the beginning of this week said that Thurs (tomorrow) was going to hit double figures. Now it turns out *Friday* will be the milder day and *tomorrow* will be a few degrees above freezing.
All depends on the wind, I suppose. But I tend to think that there can only be a finite number of combining factors that cause various wind temperatures, levels and directions, and therefore someone should be able to predict a little more accurately for 3-5 days ahead at least.
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Nope, it's changed again, a max of +2 tomorrow. Glad I scheduled my outdoor activities for tomorrow on the strength of the 11 degrees that were forecast.
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On 12/12/12 19:34, Nightjar wrote:

This is useful
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream ;sess IF they have their predictions are right looks like cold and wet till after xmas.
No northerly airflows..
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On Wed, 12 Dec 2012 19:43:02 +0000, The Natural Philosopher
I'm often puzzled by these "...erly" wind directions. Logically a northerly wind would blow towards the North, i.e. in a northerly direction, but it seems to refer to a wind blowing _from_ the North. Similarly for other directions. I would call a wind blowing from the north as a North wind, rather than Northerly.
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Even more confusingly, tides are described as you imagine, so a Northerly wind and a Northerly tide are flowing in opposite directions.
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On Wed, 12 Dec 2012 23:36:36 +0000, Frank Erskine wrote:

When I was v. young I had trouble with this, especially as if one heads in a Northerly direction...! The other one is the direction of rotation of systems: it's given as the rotation on the chart as seen from above, e.g. high pressure rotates clockwise, but we live on the 'other side' of the system.
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On Wednesday, December 12, 2012 11:36:36 PM UTC, Frank Erskine wrote:

Why is _to_ more logical than _from_ ? It seems to me that both are arbitrary choices.

Oh, I would find that even more confusing. Having North wind mean the exact opposite for Northerly wind seems like a really bad idea.
I just remember "The North Wind (*) doth blow and we shall have snow ..."
*: Yes I can see that the mnemonic agrees with your usage.
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On 12/12/2012 19:34, Nightjar wrote:

Afraid recent experience suggests far worse than that. Quite often 5 minutes ahead is way out. Something like this - at 11:55 full sun is predicted for 12:00, 15:00 and 18:00 - but is starts raining heavily, with full, thick cloud cover at 11:30 and remains like that well into the evening.
We have actually discussed the possibility of a bug in the weather display (rather than their predictions as such) because so often what they show two days ahead is more accurate than the day before or even, all too frequently, on the day itself.
Have to admit, we have not logged everything and analysed the forecasts - but that is certainly how it all too often feels.
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wrote:

I know weather forecasting is not an exact science, but I'm getting a little cheesed off with the BBC's forecasts. Again this morning at both 05:35 and 06:10 the forecast stated icy conditions for Eastern England, yet here, near Boston, it's not freezing at all this morning and the temperature is considerably higher than yesterday morning.
The weather, in fact, is much closer to what the website http://www.theweatheroutlook.com says. Using this to display frost risk for 16 days shows NO risk from 15/Dec/12 to 28/Dec/12 in my immediate postcode, and I have been tracking the actual weather here against this forecast for over a week. It looks like the forecast is completely accurate. It predicted a rise in temp today and that is exactly what has happened -- when the *BBC* is saying "freezing conditions".
MM
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Well, now the stats are in! And the forecast was dead accurate. I needn't have switched on the heating at all, after all the panic over the Wallstar oil boiler. This was the 16-day forecast from http://www.theweatheroutlook.com by the way, which didn't predict ~any~ frost for the Christmas week, the week I was away. And even since Christmas the weather in the Boston area has remained very mild.
The Wallstar is now functioning perfectly, by the way.
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On 12/12/2012 19:34, Nightjar wrote:

I race sailing dinghies.
Looks like this weekend will be off due to gales after last weekend's flat calm :( but I'd agree with those numbers. If anything a little generous And I always reckon that if they can't get the wind right then everything else will be wrong, because it won't have blown to where they thought.
<fx looks at forecast> Saturday forecast much better than last night's chart would suggest...
Andy
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Too many data points to calculate anything other than trends.
Brian
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On 12/12/2012 21:27, Andy Champ wrote:

Possibly. The ratings for up to three days was something I used when evaluating METARs; forecasts for individual airfields, which probably ought to be more accurate than general forecasts.

As with Michael Fish in 1987.

Rather you than me at this time of year.
Colin Bignell
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And you really believe all that? hmm, as Eric used to say,
This boys a fool...
Brian
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