Labour now more likely to win next general election?

Cameron is going to leave and let the Tory Eurosceptics sort out the mess.
No matter how low the immigration is pushed down, the public isn't going to be impressed with inevitable falling living standards, loss of jobs, additional pressure on public finances, and fewer staff in the NHS.
Corbyn is certain to leave before the next election and maybe he will leave now.
If Corbyn's successor is carefully chosen not to alienate the majority of the public then Labour could easily be the next government.
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And if it takes a parliamentary majority to approve the starting of Brexit negotiations with the EU, and Labour is against that, together with the SNP and possibly a Tory rump, Brexit may yet not happen.
--

Chris

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On 24/06/16 16:28, Chris Hogg wrote:

They'll be hell to pay if they fail to implement a very clear referendum.
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Really? So sovereignty was just a buzz word?
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*Any connection between your reality and mine is purely coincidental

Dave Plowman snipped-for-privacy@davenoise.co.uk London SW
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On Friday, 24 June 2016 16:41:10 UTC+1, Tim Watts wrote:

If Corbyn had followed his alleged Euro-sceptic instincts, the Labour party would now be sitting pretty.
Which goes to show, there's a price to pay for hypocrisy. Their own members showed them the way but they were too brain dead to take it. There's a surprise.
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wrote:

No, no one is going to buy renationalisation of everything again now.
Particularly with Boris replacing Cameron before anyone gets to vote again.

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Jack Samuel wrote:

I'm not convinced about that. Many think that the UK controlling the utilities would be a good thing.
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On 24/06/16 16:28, Chris Hogg wrote:

Yo9u bave conflated twoi things.
Labour getting into power, and labour not proceeding with brexit.
One or the other, not both. That what the referendum vote was all about
WE are all brexiteers now, or not in politics at all.
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On Fri, 24 Jun 2016 18:43:21 +0100, The Natural Philosopher

Yes, certainly.

But if Labour win, it will be a different sort of majority; it will be a majority of seats, not a majority of votes as was the Referendum. Several UK governments in recent years haven't had a majority of votes. For example in the 2015 election, Conservatives had 11.3M votes out of a total 30.7M votes cast*. Blair's 2005 victory gave him 9.5M votes out of a total of 27.1M cast**. On those sorts of majorities, majorities of seats not votes, Brexit would have lost heavily as it's not been supported by any of the main parties. There's no reason why the next Labour government, it that's what there is, shouldn't procrastinate or even ignore the Referendum result if they feel so inclined. There might well be uproar if they did, but it is possible in principle.
* http://tinyurl.com/kyxaykz ** http://tinyurl.com/o34nfjp
--

Chris

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On Fri, 24 Jun 2016 19:45:46 +0100, The Natural Philosopher

Don't be too cocksure about that. Exactly the same was being said about the Labour party under Kinnock when they suffered their fourth election defeat in a row, in 1992. But then in 1997 we got Blair.
--

Chris

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On 24/06/16 20:31, Chris Hogg wrote:

Yes, and I explained why that one won't work any more
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puts mah heel on um jess the same if'n I catches him around mah chillun".
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The Natural Philosopher wrote:

Your faith in turkeys is greater than mine!
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Of course. All you need is a charismatic leader. Policy doesn't matter to the English. Look at Nige. Add in a pretty face and you're home and dry.
--
*A hangover is the wrath of grapes.

Dave Plowman snipped-for-privacy@davenoise.co.uk London SW
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wrote:

Can't see that happening again any time soon.
That sort of thing doesn't even happen every generation, or century either.
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wrote:

And because they know what the voters would do to them at the next election, in practice not even Labour would actually be that stupid with a party like UKIP available to be voted for.

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It doesn't. The govt of the day is free to do that without any parliamentary majority.
The most parliament gets to do is approve or reject what the negotiators produce if they produce anything.
If negotiations stall as IMO they will, because the EU will be stupid enough to insist even now that the free movement of people between the EU and Britain must be part of any agreement, and that Britain must continue to pay what it currently pays the EU, because the EU must have that money to survive, the negotiators will will either wait till the 2 year period expires, or make an obscene gesture in the general direction of the EU and unilaterally pull out of the EU. And in the later case, IMO the parliament will be happy to do that.

I doubt even Labour would be that stupid given the very unambiguous result of the referendum and the fact that so many of the Labour voters are in favour of leaving.

I don't buy that. It might have happened with a less clear cut referendum result and say Cameron saying that he was going to go back to the EU to get more concessions, but given how intransigent Junker etc clearly is, he wouldn't get any.
IMO any parliament that was actually stupid enough to try to ignore the referendum result just seen would get punished very severely at the next British elections, and they know that. They know that UKIP might well get lots of MPs elected.
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On 24/06/2016 16:20, pamela wrote:

Why would that happen?
Pop into your over stretched A&E and count how many don't have English as a first language.
What makes you think living standards will fall?

--
Dave - The Medway Handyman

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David Lang a écrit :

Did you mean the 'customers', or the staff?
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On 24/06/16 17:11, Harry Bloomfield wrote:

Both in my rather too extensive experience.
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On 24/06/2016 16:20, pamela wrote:

Not that you care but welcome to my KF
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