Well this lot for starters
Apocalyptic predictions about the impact of climate change are
'overstated', according to a new study.
Experts have found that the UN's worst case scenario, that the world
could warm by up to 6°C (10.8°F) by 2100, is unlikely to happen.
New calculations worked out the probable impact of greenhouse gases on
global warming and found that more extreme scenarios will almost
certainly not occur.
They reduce the range of possible end-of-century outcomes by more than
half, researchers said, including the best and worst case scenarios.
Unfortunately one of the problems of science is that certain classes of
equations, called chaotic, won't give meaningful predictions *even if
they are 100% accurate in representing the reality*.
For example, a pencil balanced on end is perfectly described by the law
of gravity: however that won't tell you which way that it will fall.
Brownian motion at the molecular level will determine that.
That's before we start on Schrödingers much maligned moggy...
Climate is chaotic, and that means within a very broad range of
possibilities, its totally unpredictable.
New Socialism consists essentially in being seen to have your heart in
the right place whilst your head is in the clouds and your hand is in
more data is good but you don't get more data over time for the weather
system. You still only have the same amount of valid data recorded by
the weather instruments even if you wait a day.
The problem with weather forecasting is not knowing the starting
conditions which makes it hard to model.
The best you can do is divide the planet into cells and fit some best
guesses into the cells based on nearby observations, nearby can be a
long way especially over the oceans.
Weather models are pretty good unlike climate models, weather models can
predict the future for a useful period.
Climate models have all failed to predict the future so are pretty
useless for actual science.
Some years ago I read that even if your cells are 12" on a side, cover
the whole planet surface, and vertically go up to the edge of space
(and cover the whole planet at each 12" level), and even if you could
instrument each 12" cube and gather from it humidity, temp, pressure,
wind speed & direction, and your computer was fast enough to process
all that in near-enough real-time, your forecast would still only be
good for about a month.
"I am enclosing two tickets to the first night of my new play; bring a
friend.... if you have one." - GB Shaw to Churchill "Cannot possibly
Indeed. But the rollong of dice is not chaotic
Lets say you have a video camera hooked up, and if it detects that 12
sixes are rolled in a row, a switch will close and you will be
electrocuted. Now predict in a year of dice rolling, whether or not you
will be killed, and when...
Of what good are dead warriors? … Warriors are those who desire battle
more than peace. Those who seek battle despite peace. Those who thump
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