Global warming.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-5284167/Last-year-hottest-record-without-El-Nino.html I 'spect there's still some nitwits here who still don't believe it.
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On 18/01/2018 16:22, harry wrote:

Well this lot for starters
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-5283035/Worst-case-global-warming-scenarios-wont-happen.html
Apocalyptic predictions about the impact of climate change are 'overstated', according to a new study.
Experts have found that the UN's worst case scenario, that the world could warm by up to 6°C (10.8°F) by 2100, is unlikely to happen.
New calculations worked out the probable impact of greenhouse gases on global warming and found that more extreme scenarios will almost certainly not occur.
They reduce the range of possible end-of-century outcomes by more than half, researchers said, including the best and worst case scenarios.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-5283035/Worst-case-global-warming-scenarios-wont-happen.html#ixzz54YW9YG9T
--
Chris B (News)

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wrote:

Which was also reported on in the Times today.
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On 18-Jan-18 4:22 PM, harry wrote:

I will believe that the scientists know what is causing climate change when they can make accurate predictions based upon their claims.
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That'll be never, then.
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*applause*
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On 18/01/18 18:19, Nightjar wrote:

Unfortunately one of the problems of science is that certain classes of equations, called chaotic, won't give meaningful predictions *even if they are 100% accurate in representing the reality*.
For example, a pencil balanced on end is perfectly described by the law of gravity: however that won't tell you which way that it will fall. Brownian motion at the molecular level will determine that.
That's before we start on Schrödingers much maligned moggy...
Climate is chaotic, and that means within a very broad range of possibilities, its totally unpredictable.
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On 18/01/2018 20:05, The Natural Philosopher wrote:

Weather is chaotic. Climate can be modelled and, within a decent margin of error, predicted.
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On 18/01/2018 21:50, RJH wrote:

It helps if they don't discard the modelling results that don't fit the pet theory of the day.
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Weather can be modelled too, its what the MetOffice does for a living. But beyond a few days, the forecasts can be less and less useful.

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On 18/01/18 21:50, RJH wrote:

Not really, no it cant.
Climate is in any case the time average of weather, so if weather cant be predicted, neither can climate

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On 19/01/2018 07:42, The Natural Philosopher wrote:

Really. In Birmingham, hot in summer, cold in winter? There you are :-)

No. It's one of those things - more data, better modelling. Time gives you access to more data. Not, of course, necessarily better models.
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On Friday, 19 January 2018 08:21:06 UTC, RJH wrote:

I was told that in winter it rains a lot and it summer the rain is a few Cs warmer.
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On 19/01/2018 08:21, RJH wrote:
8<

more data is good but you don't get more data over time for the weather system. You still only have the same amount of valid data recorded by the weather instruments even if you wait a day. The problem with weather forecasting is not knowing the starting conditions which makes it hard to model. The best you can do is divide the planet into cells and fit some best guesses into the cells based on nearby observations, nearby can be a long way especially over the oceans.
Weather models are pretty good unlike climate models, weather models can predict the future for a useful period. Climate models have all failed to predict the future so are pretty useless for actual science.
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Some years ago I read that even if your cells are 12" on a side, cover the whole planet surface, and vertically go up to the edge of space (and cover the whole planet at each 12" level), and even if you could instrument each 12" cube and gather from it humidity, temp, pressure, wind speed & direction, and your computer was fast enough to process all that in near-enough real-time, your forecast would still only be good for about a month.
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On 19/01/2018 21:12, dennis@home wrote:

By just predicting that tomorrow is going to have the same weather as today is possibly more accurate than the models.
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On Friday, 19 January 2018 07:42:01 UTC, The Natural Philosopher wrote:

test-record-without-El-Nino.html

s.

Trends can be predicted.
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On 19/01/2018 07:42, The Natural Philosopher wrote:

I can't predict what you'll roll on a die. Roll it enough times and the average is pretty clear.
Andy
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On 19/01/18 22:44, Vir Campestris wrote:

Indeed. But the rollong of dice is not chaotic
Lets say you have a video camera hooked up, and if it detects that 12 sixes are rolled in a row, a switch will close and you will be electrocuted. Now predict in a year of dice rolling, whether or not you will be killed, and when...

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On 20/01/2018 06:46, The Natural Philosopher wrote:

I think you'll find not even the most ardent warmists are claiming to predict the next killer hurricane.
Andy
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