I expect nobody wants to touch them in case they carry the virus.
Its interesting as recent info suggests its about as contagious as flu, but
like flu the people who do not just get a bad cold are those with other
issues affecting their breathing or immune system.
I just wonder how many of the other viruses we see each year are in fact new
and just because they have not started in a very precise area, have just
been allowed to run their course?
Certainly several recently developed anti virals seem to help with people
who are badly affected by this one as they block the common machinery needed
to replicate the rna of the virus and scramble it. The danger is that there
could be side effects due to the action producing toxins etc.
Still I'd rather be a bit ill than dead.
Well, I personally feel that my original statement is probably going to be
true, ie its nowhere near as infectious as Measles or chicken pox, probably
as bad as your average winter virus, and for most normal people, not
dangerous, but the problem is you do not know if you are one of those for
whom it is dangerous, but we do not know that for sure about all the viruses
circulating anyway. OK its right to be careful, but if we did this for every
new virus each year, then it would cripple all economies. In the main here
we are attempting to keep it out of countries where there is poor healthcare
infrastructure, since once it is established there, it is inevitable it will
That is why I said "common" flu.
But yes, flu could mutate into an especially severe form. Hopefully
modern medicine would be better at handling a modern version of Spanish
flu. I see they quote about 6 months to develop a new flu vaccine. I'm
not sure how difficult it will be to develop a vaccine for nCoV.
Hopefully if we can delay it arriving here for a year or two, we will be
OK. Although, we still don't have an AIDS vaccine after 35 years.
Mortality of seasonal flu varies greatly but averages about 1%.
Covid-19 seems to have mortality of 2 to 3 %. SARS was around 10%.
The big problem with Covid-19 is that some one infected becomes
contagious possibly days before they show any symptoms. So it gets
passed on before the infected person self isolates or presents and
gets sent to an isolation unit.
Better at handling the secondary effects like pneumonia with
anti-biotics. Not sure modern medicine would be any better at dealing
with the virus itself. Probably depends on when and where it mutates
and how similar it is to something we already have a vaccine for. The
seasonal flu jab, is cocktail of vaccines for the three strains that
they think might be ones circulating in the coming winter.
The WHO are going for around 18 months... The problem is very little
money is likely to be made, so "big pharma" aren't really interested.
There is also the risk you spend millions on developing a vaccine
only to have good containment cause it to die out.
The next few days to a week might be interesting...
One of the buyers in my old employer told me one of his Chinese
suppliers has asked if he can source 1000 masks in the uk for them!
Furthermore he is expecting massive shortages of Chinese manufactured
product to start appearing next month. They are already refusing to
discount bulk purchases from uk stocks as he expects Chinese prices to
The point is the masks we see here are for stopping stuff getting in not
out, and its the out bit we need to stop those with anything from giving it
to everyone else, whatever it is. I wonder if anyone has done any research
on this in the winter season, to see if it brings down the number of colds
an flue. I'd bye more wary of measles than this virus at the moment, I
That is possibly one of the most infectious things about. Brian
AIUI the purpose of surgical mask is to stop stuff getting *out*.
I did read about this earlier and there was scepticism about surgical
masks providing a benefit against a viral epidemic, I'm not quite sure
what that means.
I was only half taking the piss with my earlier response to Judith,
suggesting a screwfix dusk mask. Dusk masks and, possibly even better,
bicycle masks are designed to stop stuff getting in. So if you are
interested in protecting yourself get one of them. Reasonable masks can
be purchased for £20-30. These masks are unpleasant to wear, as moisture