[CC] UN: Climate disaster predictions from 30 years ago

U.N. Predicts Disaster if Global Warming Not Checked PETER JAMES SPIELMANN June 30, 1989
UNITED NATIONS (AP) A senior U.N. environmental official says entire
nations could be wiped off the face of the Earth by rising sea levels if the global warming trend is not reversed by the year 2000.
Coastal flooding and crop failures would create an exodus of 'eco-refugees' threatening political chaos, said Noel Brown, director of the New York office of the U.N. Environment Program, or UNEP.
He said governments have a 10-year window of opportunity to solve the greenhouse effect before it goes beyond human control.
As the warming melts polar icecaps, *ocean levels will rise by up to three feet*, enough to cover the Maldives and other flat island nations, Brown told The Associated Press in an interview on Wednesday.
*Coastal regions will be inundated*; *one-sixth of Bangladesh could be flooded*, displacing a fourth of its 90 million people. A fifth of Egypt’s arable land in the Nile Delta would be flooded, cutting off its food supply, according to a joint UNEP and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency study.
"Ecological refugees will become a major concern, and what’s worse is you may find that people can move to drier ground, but the soils and the natural resources may not support life. Africa doesn’t have to worry about land, but would you want to live in the Sahara?" he said.
--
Spike



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On 03/08/2019 10:25, Spike wrote:

Do you have the actual link, rather than cut and paste? (Serious request, not a stroppy doubter, as I would like to add it to my collection of failed predictions).
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On 03/08/2019 13:40, newshound wrote:

This is the full version, HTH:
https://www.apnews.com/bd45c372caf118ec99964ea547880cd0
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Spike

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On 03/08/2019 11:03, Spike wrote:

Ah, a media story. My personal experience with these is that they often bear little relationship to what the interviewee actually said. Fifty years ago I was incensed on seeing an article in the Daily Fail about an impending "Little Ice Age" which was a load of bollocks from beginning to end. I'd worked with the interviewees and could not believe what they'd said. When I got to work I was going to ring them but, considering they were a few grades above me, I delayed a bit. However, one rang me first to apologise about the article, saying it was nonsense, and that none of the quotes attributed to them were what they'd said.
A few years ago, I was speaking to someone who'd also fallen foul of such misreporting and so, on his next interview, asked the interviewers whether they minded whether he recorded it. They agreed. Of course, when the story appeared, he'd been totally misquoted. He got another meeting with them and went over the recording.They found all the words on the recording that had appeared in the quotes but none of the phrases or sentences. They had resorted, in effect, to the Eric Morecambe defence where they'd used the right words but not necessarily in the right order!
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On 03/08/2019 11:49, Graham P Davis wrote:

I don't doubt that there is some selective quotation here, but I am pretty confident that the basic theme of the UN prediction was that there would be problems if something wasn't done. People being human, they might well have sexed it up a bit, and of course journalists write it up for the most dramatic spin, that is what journalists do.
Like Graham, I have had the unsettling experience of seeing highly selective quotation from nuclear power professionals turned into a series of dire warnings.
Skipping back to when I was passionate and impressionable, I worried about the now-classic Paul Ehrlich quote from 1968:
"The battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now. At this late date nothing can prevent a substantial increase in the world death rate". Which of course didn't happen.
I also believed the 1960's prediction that oil was going to run out in the 1890's.
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On 03/08/2019 14:37, newshound wrote:

Wow!
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On 03/08/2019 14:49, Graham P Davis wrote:

I say much the same about the BBC TV news and its relentless, one-sided portrayal of 'climate change', but at least they were brave enough to hold a secret meeting (the secrecy was later denied, when the matter became public knowledge) with climate change supporters that agreed to put forward only one side of the climate change debate. So much for 'impartiality', I suppose, but one wonders why such a betrayal of the public was thought necessary.

I've been fortunate enough to have been involved in what later became 'news stories', and can agree that what appears in public can be only part of the whole story. That's the media for you.

The interesting thing about the AP article is that much of what was said was in the form of quotes rather than words that had been jiggled about. Unfortunately reports such as that on which the article was based have a tendency to disappear from view, especially having been written before the days of the internet and even more so when the predictions they made do not come to pass. A search of the UNEP web site failed to turn up the report, or even any mention of its author, so this is now the best that can be done, and it shouldn't be discarded because of that.
--
Spike

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On 05/08/2019 10:16, Spike wrote:

As I pointed out in the two examples I gave, quotes can often bear little or no relationship to what was actually said. I've also seen articles based on press statements that have been so mangled that they also bear no relevance to the original statement.
--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. Web-site: http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
“Understanding is a three-edged sword. Your side, my side, and the
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On 05/08/2019 15:29, Graham P Davis wrote:

But, on the other hand, no specific reason has been advanced to doubt the provenance of the information in that particular AP article.
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On 05/08/2019 15:27, Spike wrote:

But even if it were accurately reported (which seems unlikely as Graham has described) then so what? We know that there can be a considerable lag (40-50 years, maybe more) for a given CO2 level to have its full effect on polar ice melt, sea-level etc.
So the full consequences of the CO2 level in 2000 won't be seen until at least eg 2040-2050. Maybe you could come back to this forum then and we can review what actually happened.
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Then it is not yet countable as evidence for global warming.
Almost anything *could* happen. However, it's only when it *has* happened that it can be taken as evidence for or against an empirical theory.
--
Evremonde

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Just as in Roman times, you mean.

Population level too high. Unlike in Roman times.

Global warning might, or might not, be real. That it is due to humans is another matter.

What a stupid comment. We've had this discussion before, and it was pointed out that if the temperature has gone up a bit, it's nothing more than a statement of the bleeding obvious to say that recent years exhibit peak temps.
And d'ye think we never had flash floods before? Suggest you look up what happened here, and when:
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lynmouth_Flood>
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"Please stop telling us what you feel. Please stop telling us what your
intuition is. Your intuitive feelings are of no interest whatsoever,
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On 06/08/2019 13:36, The Natural Philosopher wrote:

You really should sober up before reaching for the keyboard. You are giving the impression of an inebriated nutter here.

Prove it! There is a Nobel Prize waiting for anyone who can demonstrate that the prevailing orthodoxy on climate change is wrong.

You clearly are delusional. The CO2 warms the planet slightly and that warming also increases the atmospheric water vapour content as well as making CO2 less soluble in the seas which is another potential feedback.
You know as well as I do that a warmer atmosphere can hold more water. As an aside one of the first pieces of work I did as a researcher was on quantifying the relationship for a precision computer code to find the driest possible locations on Earth for placing observatories.

Why make personal attacks on these two scientists?

That pretty much sums you up. Incoherent ranting and raving by a deranged right whinger.
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Martin Brown
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Any piece of software is precise. But is it accurate?
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(and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an
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On 07/08/19 10:50, Tim Streater wrote:

Anyone remember David Bellamy? He dared to question those promoting man made global warming etc and was promptly sidelined by the BBC etc. Prior to that, he was extremely popular. Unlike Attenborough, Bellamy is a real scientist, not a jumped up presenter.
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On 07/08/19 11:03, Brian Reay wrote:

No one is 'promoting' that CO2 is a greenhouse gas. It's is a scientific fact.

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wrote:

Hmm, staring very hard at Brian Reay's paragraph above, I'm having some difficulty in spotting CO2 being mentioned.
So you point was *what*, precisely?
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the problem. But the truth is that government ensures that the most evil,
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On 07/08/19 11:55, Tim Streater wrote:

"...promoting man-made global warming..." If he wasn't referring to CO2 what was he referring to.

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wrote:

Perhaps the old darling will enlighten us in due course.
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Churchill: "And you, madam, are ugly. But I shall be sober in the morning."
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On 07/08/2019 11:46, RedAcer wrote:

So is ozone and methane and especially water vapour. Your point is?
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