# What are the odds, motel AC

• posted on September 16, 2007, 5:17 pm
This is, I hope, a fun quiz.
Tonight I was at a meeting in a room that has two motel-style AC/heating units in the wall, under the windows. They are 40 years old and have worked without problem afaik all these years.
Tonight, the fan in one of them started making a scraping noise some of the time, long scrapes when they happened
Sometimes it ran fine, sometimes it scraped, and sometimes it caught on something and stopped altogether, but only for a couple minutes.
Everyone was leaving this evening and no one was expected back for 24 hours.
What are the odds that the fan would catch on the shroud and stay stuck?
The odds that when it did that, the motor would overheat?
The odds that there isn't thermal protection in an AC fan motor that is 40 years old?
The odds that the thermal protection wouldn't work? (These last two are in the negative so that all the questions ask about bad results.)
The odds that if the thermal protection didn't work, the fan would catch on fire?
Alterntively, what are the cumulative odds, from beginning to end, that this AC will catch on fire in the next 24 hours?
What are the odds that if there was a fire, it would be hot enough to set fire to something outside the AC**?
**Yeah, we could move everything, but this is just a questionairre. What we actually did is turn the AC off.
The building is 40 years old now, it's sold and will be torn down when the new owner gets around to it. Until then, we're renting the building we used to own.
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• posted on September 16, 2007, 5:32 pm
1 in 1134
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• posted on September 18, 2007, 12:45 am

1 in 1135. Musta rounded differently.
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• posted on September 18, 2007, 4:40 am
On Tue, 18 Sep 2007 00:45:54 -0000, Steve Kraus

I'll have to use the first number, because I don't want to give them a false sense of security.
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• posted on September 18, 2007, 9:23 pm

depends is there fire insurance on the building scheduled for demolition?
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• posted on September 19, 2007, 3:57 am
On Tue, 18 Sep 2007 14:23:29 -0700, " snipped-for-privacy@aol.com"

AIUI, since we sold it, we have almost no insurable interest in it anymore, only a few thousand dollars worth of contents, and we couldn't benefit much even if the insurance paid off. So I should tell the boss to cancel the insurance, or reduce it at least. (We had a lawyer. He should have thought of this, but who knows?)
Since the buyer is going to tear it down, how much could he claim? Only for whatever he might have been planning to sell**, and if it is possible that it could cost more to tear down after a fire than without one. **commericial kitchen stuff, not a lot and old, but still must be worth something since they work fine, maybe a few special order light fixtures.)
All in all, he probably didn't buy insurance.
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• posted on September 19, 2007, 6:53 pm

re: 1 in 1134
Did you know that 87.4% of all statistics are made up on the spot?