What has happened to OSB?

[Luigi Zanasi]

On 12 Dec 2003 20:23:36 GMT, [e-mail] (Charlie Self) scribbled

Actually, Charlie, the number of people on unemployment insurance (pogey, David; dole Jeff) has nothing to do with the way unemployment is counted in North America. This is a very common misconception.

Every month, your Bureau of Labour Statistics contacts about 60,000 Murrican households and asks a series of questions about each person. (Actually the Bureau of the Census does the survey and the BLS does the arithmetic). If someone worked at least one hour in the previous week for pay or profit, or in a family business, they are counted as employed. People off work because of sickness, maternity or vacation are also counted as employed. They are counted as unemployed if they were available to take a job and say either that actively looked for work in the previous month or that they are on temporary layoff and expect to be recalled. Just looking at want ads isn't good enough, by "actively looking" the BLS means contacting employers or others with potential leads to jobs. Everybody else is a NILF (Not in the Labour Force).

For everything you always wanted to know about unemployment statistics in the US but were afraid to ask:

us Kanuckistanis, the process is very much the same, except that Statistics Canada interviews about 54,000 households and looking at want ads gets you counted as unemployed. This is one of the reasons why unemployment rates are higher in Canada. For the nitty gritty:

issue of whether the official statistics undercount unemployment has been hotly debated. My personal view is that they do. But the unemployment rate is not a particularly useful figure, except for political types to bash each other with.

Luigi Who likes to think of himself as a number-crunching storyteller Replace "no" with "yk" for real email address

OBWW: For some stats on wreckers and other woodworkers, see Howard Ruttan's web site:

[Luigi Zanasi]

On Sat, 13 Dec 2003 01:09:55 GMT, Mark scribbled

Ackshally, he didn't, he attributed it to Disraeli. See my previous post on this:

"no" with "yk" for real email address

[Silvan]

I do, because I listen to the BBC World Service almost every night. It's been dropping like a stone. What, those ridiculous looking ? flummies are worth more than $1.20 I think. I can't remember what it's gotten up to. $1.27? $1.30?

I did a silly little thing with a friend in Finland a few years ago. I bought 10 ? for $10, then threw in a $2 bill for the hell of it, so he would have what might be the only US $2 bill in Finland. $12 for 10 ?... I figured I was getting screwed.

I never imagined I would break even, let alone profit. Hell, this stuff looks like Monopoly money.

[--Shiva--]

the claim is made that productivity is up...

take a factory with 10 people working, takes x hours of labor to produce a 'piece' get a new machine in there, that produces 5 times the number of 'pieces' per x hours, fire 8 guys that are no longer needed, and whats the bottom line REPORTED? productivity is up...cause 2 people are now producing the new x per piece labor cost, which is down by 80% over what it was. they IGNORE the unemployed, especially after the long term unemployment is paid out.

--Shiva--

[Mark & Juanita]

Seems like the same kind of argument was made in pre-industrial revolution England.

[John]

What happened to this post? Could it have anything to do with the Trade issues with Canada and their soft wood lumber products? With less product going out the border here it sure has affected prices.

John

[The Other James]

Well it dropped in the Portland OR area a little bit in the last week. It's now about $13-$14 at the local HD, down almost $4 from two weeks ago.

[Rich-in-WA]

I've been watching the OSB prices with some interest, as we're getting ready to start construction on a new house this spring. The reasons I've heard for the price jump are:

1) Suppliers cut back production anticipating construction slowdown that has not occured thanks to the low interest rates.

2) US Gov bought up a huge supply to help rebuild Iraq.

3) Georgia Pacific OSB mill burned down, further contributing to the supply shortage.

I have no idea if these rumors are true, but they are being talked up in many circles. If true it would indicate a "perfect storm" leading to the high prices of late. Like all storms though, this one should blow through given time.

Richard Johnson Camano Island, WA

P.S. We're actually planning to use plywood on the roof and floor decks, but may use OSB on the vertical surfaces. I live in an area where rain is likely during the framing stage, and I'm nervous about water sitting on the OSB. I haven't looked lately, but I'd assume if OSB is sky-high, plywood has taken a price jump as well as builders look for alternatives.

[Jay]

Sorry, I couldn't resist. What with the economics major and all...

The commodity price for steaks has been going up for quite a while now in the states. This has been largely due a combination of several factors but mostly to the combination of the Mad Cow scare in Canada (Shock to supply) and the "Low Carb" diet craze (Shock to demand). Before these factors kicked in, the cattle ranchers were producing a good supply of beef. Since these shocks, the ranchers haven't been able to keep up. (I guess the cattle just aren't feeling in the mood)

We are only just starting to feel the beef price crunch because the grocery chains have been sheltering us somewhat from this to keep up demand. It gets worse... I have a friend who trades 13 month cattle futures at the merc and it doesn't look like prices are dropping anytime soon.

As for inflation...

Its tough to point to individual items as examples of inflation. Please see the following link for an example on how inflation works:

housing factors in 40%, we should see a trickle affect to inflation if construction supplies continue to rise because of siphoning to Iraq.