OT The Non Oil Crisis

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ok, lately I've been running into some interesting Reports and Video. I'm not sure how true these are or if they might be in the classification of Conspiracy Theory's. But the PDF report was generated from a Report to Congress as is the Testimony of Michael W. Masters Managing Member / Portfolio Manager Masters Capital Management, LLC
Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs United States Senate May 20,
I think it's worth checking out: http://hsgac.senate.gov/public/_files/052008Masters.pdf
Also a video by Lindsey Williams a Minister on the North Slope of Alaska who according to him has first hand knowledge of this Non Oil Crisis. Believe he is also the Author of a book of the same name. Again I'm not endorsing him but he has some interesting facts.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NbakN7SLdbk

I do believe we are not getting the true facts about this so called Oil problem. It has happened before and it won't be the last time. I'm just wondering what the over all plan is: To destroy the US Economy or the Worlds Economy. There is larger forces here at work and I'd like to know who they are. And I'm not one that believes in Conspiracy's. But this one has me thinking.
Rich
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This might shed some light on some of your questions: yet another theory:
http://www.wakeupfromyourslumber.com/node/7075
(Wait for the Kool-Aid crowd come running out, swords drawn. *I* didn't write that piece, but found it interesting as I tend to look at all sides instead of a brain-washed view with blinders on.)
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Robatoy wrote:

That's pretty much what the PDF article says to. But he goes into more depth of who is investing into these futures. Pension Funds, University's and explains what will happen when the bottom drops out. More Enron's.
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wrote:

That .pdf is indeed quite detailed. (printing) Thanks for that.
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Robatoy wrote:

I agree. After spending the time to read it how could this be fabricated and nonsense. Besides this guy says he's going against the grain and will probably be admonished for it.
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If the prices of used RV's and motor yachts are any indication, adjustments in consumption are already starting in a big way. The average consumer might be a bit slow to 'get it', but, like a supertanker, it takes a big space to turn it around at full speed.
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Robatoy wrote:

Jeez, Robatoy, your response to this is definitely different to what you have been posting lately. You're not getting serious are you?
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evodawg wrote:

Having read the article, I'm unclear how this is going to be beneficial to those investors. Commodities markets are exactly that, trading in commodities, if a trader buys x barrels of December oil, x barrels of oil are going to show up at his doorstep in December unless he sells those barrels to someone else (doesn't matter if it's an institutional investor or a traditional trader). I realize the person in the article made the comment that the traders use "calendar shifting" to never take delivery, but that calendar shifting also represents a trade of some sort that pushes out the delivery. This doesn't seem like a sustainable position -- I certainly hope my pension funds aren't engaging in this kind of thing. Eventually, the commodities, the futures, and the market will catch up with one another -- doesn't matter if institutions hold the commodities or not, at some point, they have to be sold because they become real goods after harvest or being pumped from the ground -- it's got to go somewhere; i.e, it's no longer paper -- it's x barrels of oil or y bushels of wheat -- all headed to the commodity trader's place of business unless otherwise directed. If there is too much of the commodity at that time, the price will come down. They have a very strong bargaining position -- the commodity traders may "own" the commodity for which the traders paid a high price and want to get that price back; however, they have nowhere to go with that commodity, they can't take delivery, the buyer is the person who has the facilities and ability to use the commodity, since most of those buyers are similarly large corporations, the investors have a limited base to whom they can sell.
Sure seems like there is a bursting bubble heading our way. Which, if it's pension funds doing this is not a good thing.
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Mark & Juanita wrote:

If I were you I know what I would do. This is Enron all over again and guess who will be paying again, the tax payer and who is involved directly or indirectly.
Good Luck, hang on to your ass and don't get caught bent over.
Can we just have a section on the ballet "None of the Above".
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Mark & Juanita wrote:

early 80's. It was strictly a money grab on the market. Unfortunately this one affects all of us and not just the speculators. Hopefully it will come to an end soon.
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"Mark & Juanita" wrote

to
pushes
Once again, follow the tankers:
http://tinyurl.com/5vs857
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Swingman wrote:

OK, I get that is how this could happen. But why would institutional investors do that? How does it provide a path to them reaping great rewards? There has to be a logic behind the actions. Stockpiling commodities is just plain dumb unless you believe production will go down (bad harvest, loss of use of pumps, etc). Enron was a fraudulent company that was built on a house of cards, it was not a typical business, it was doing things it knew were unsustainable (shell companies and all), so it's model doesn't seem to apply to this situation. This is not typical behavior for an investment house that is buying and selling real ownership in real businesses. So, what is the motivation? The pat answer of "lots of money" doesn't make sense, institutional investment houses live and die by their reputations -- it is not their money that they are investing and their continued long-term financial well being is dependent upon the influx of new capital. Doing something like this would permanently destroy the ability of any of those houses that were participants in this bubble. I don't get it, it doesn't make sense.
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[snipped for brevity]

The second largest OPEC member, if memory serves me, is Iran. The threat of war from those opposed to the nuclear ambitions of Iran, can be enough for the speculators to take a gamble. Just a guess.
r
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"Robatoy" wrote

down
Not necessary. Spitting on the street is sufficient ... go outside, spit, wait for markets to close, purchase some petrol in the morning, report back.
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Careful there Swingman, with insights like this, you could get hired at CNN as a "financial analyst".
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LOL... or at Fark.com where they are convinced that oil-prices rise whenever Paris Hilton does something stupid.
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On Tue, 10 Jun 2008 08:22:16 -0700 (PDT), Robatoy

Well, there certainly seems to be a statistical correlation between those two ongoing event streams.
When I was a bit more naive, I would have said that a market could not be manipulated by other than real supply and demand. However, I am old enough to remember the Hunt boy's and what they did for silver.
Frank
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The Hunt brothers were extremely naive if they thought they could get away with hijacking the silver market. All the exchnges did was increase the margin requirements, and the Hunt brothers ran out of money. All commodity and future contracts are highly leveraged. A big enough change in margin requirements will wipe out almost anybody.
What did they lose? A billion or two? It is like the classic case of the sophisticated criminal getting away with numerous crimes and nobody knowing who they are or how they did it. But greed forces them to push the envelope and they get caught. The Hunt Brothers made a huge amount of money. But they couldn't stop. Instead of taking their profits and ivesting them elsewhere, they went for broke. And like any compulsive gambler who bets it all, they lost. They could have got out sooner and still made billions.
The silver market is an interesting market anyway. All the conspiracy freaks are fixated on the silver markets. And there is a lot of institutional hank panky going on in the silver market. One of the latest developments is that Morgan Stanley has been charging storage and service fees for silver purchased through them. And they never bought the silver. They used the money interest free and charged their customers for non existant silver! There was a class action suit recently from 22,000 customers over this practice.
Morgan Stanley has to pay out a few million bucks and promises to be good boys in the future. But nobody goes to jail and it is doubtful if anybody will get fired. And this is a common practice with anybody who sells silver certificates.
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Lee Michaels wrote:

Think that's common practice with anyone that sells anything. Buyer Beware!
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"evodawg" wrote

Exactly!! If you ever buy silver bullion or certificates, there is a serial number. Ask for that number. If they won't provide you with a number, they never bought the silver.
And like you said, it is a common practice.
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