#uck'in Idiots and toxic dust :-(

[Terry Casey]

Where does this 15 year period come from?

My father died of gastric ulcers when I was three.

When I was 14, our geography teacher, describing some part of this planet (but I can't remember which part!) mentioned the asbestos industry there and told us that death from gastric ulcers was common in asbestos workers ...

My father's death certificate shows his employment as "Labourer, Asbestos Factory" ...

However, from things my mum told me about other jobs he'd had, it's obvious that he hadn't worked there for 15 years, or anything like as long ...

[Andy Champ]

That's possibly true. But how do you prove it? Say 90% of all cases are in people who smoked. And the other 10% are in people who have been exposed to smoke (or asbestos). You can't really tell whether some of the cases were associated with something else, because of the strong smoke (or asbestos!) effect on the disease.

Andy

[Andy Dingley]

You can't with lung diseases, but you can with mesothelioma. There's really nothing much else that causes it.

Legally there's no requirement to prove that asbestos caused a condition anyway. The legal test is that it _probably_ caused it, which is accepted as being proven if the exposure caused at least a doubling of risk (sounds low, but actually it makes statistical sense). A doubling of risk is not an epidemiologically serious increase in risk - in most studies of rare conditions with small sample groups it's hard to demonstrate significance - but it can be enough to show cause.

[Man at B&Q]

ar

How long ago was that? Stomach ulcers, and their causes, are much getter understood than they used to be.

MBQ

[Terry Casey]

My father died in 1947

[Dave Liquorice]

Quite, the most common cause is a bacteria (helicobacter pylori), not "stress". Of cousre it's not quite that simple, other factors do come into play but having that bacteria present will greatly increase the chances of a small ulcer caused, by say asprin, becoming rather more serious.

[Andy Dingley]

Causes both stomach ulcers and Bristol trip hop. Tricky's music has never been so good since he was cured.

[Andy Champ]

Again, how do you know?

BTW it says here

can be associated with glass dust.

As you say, much easier to prove. The odd 1% error in the numbers is then unimportant.

Andy