OT: Recession Coming

[The Natural Philosopher]

What's with this not only...but also...bit??

Let me fix that..

[Adrian]

Sure. But that's about all.

It's a politically-motivated suggestion made by a political think-tank (albeit one with links to the current government), and picked up by media outlets which share that political viewpoint.

I very much doubt it'll ever come to anything more than just a suggestion. IF it does, THEN it'll be news.

[Nightjar]

On 18/01/2016 04:56, Mike Tomlinson wrote: ...

A lot of financial advisers recommend Premium Bonds.

[charles]

when I was given my first permium bond, the money could have bought at least 20 Mars bars. If I cashe it in, I couln't even buy one - and I've never won anything.;-(

[tim.....]

Oh have you seen a different report that isn't by a bunch of morons?

In fact, I don't believe that's possible because the suggestion is so moronic it can only be made by a bunch of Morons

It goes liken this:

The claim is that by scrapping the Guarantee savers would "research" their banks more thoroughly and only save with the sound ones.

What a load of bollocks that is:

In previous financial crashes: BCCI/Enron/Others the imminent demise of the said institution was NOT spotted by a bunch of government (BOE/FSA) financial experts whose sole full time job it was to look for such irregularities.

So, given that suitably qualified individuals with virtually unlimited time/resources could not achieve this holy grail of being able to tell a bad bank from a good bank.

How the f*ck is an uneducated MITS with limited time going to be able to do so?

The mere suggestion that they might be so able, is totally moronic

tim

[Cursitor Doom]

That's how these unpopular changes always seem to begin, though!

[Cursitor Doom]

If you get to that stage you've had your chips, anyway.

[Nightjar]

The usual recommendation is to invest to the limit, currently £50k. With the odds of winning being 1 in 26,000, that should see you get a win or two most months.

The returns are not brilliant - the fund currently awards 1.35% in prizes - but it suits people who like their money to be safe.

[Tim Lamb]

In message , tim..... writes

Umm.. There might be a hint that those offering higher interest rates are considered less reliable by savers.

I suppose an alternative scenario is to frighten those of us with bank savings to go out and spend the money, thus helping the economy/chancellor?

[Cursitor Doom]

Like Santander!

Yes, or into risk assets like equities. They're not making any secret of it in some quarters either.

[Cursitor Doom]

On Tue, 19 Jan 2016 18:28:16 +0000, Nightjar A lot of financial advisers recommend Premium Bonds.

A lot of these "financial advisers" are callow twits too young to even remember the last big crash of '87. All they do is flog crappy investments anyway; they're just salespeople with a fancy-sounding title.

[jack]

And I clearly said WE HAVE ENDED UP with peace in our time in western europe NOW.

[jack]

The west doesn?t do gulags.

[Mike Tomlinson]

Yes, thanks, have had them for years. Maxed out and a nice steady trickle of prizes.

Taking into account tax (PB wins are tax free), they gave me a "return" of 5.5% last year. Lucky, I know, and it'll probably be squat this year.

Have a couple of NS&I index-linked bonds maturing in the spring.

[Adrian]

On Tue, 19 Jan 2016 20:03:42 +0000, Nightjar The returns are not brilliant - the fund currently awards 1.35% in

VERY heavily skewed by a very small number of very large prizes.

[harry]

The actual reason given is not the truth? The government would not be able to honour it's guarantee promises. Maybe they anticipate a new banking crash and are trying to wriggle out. After all they have just cut the amount guaranteed safe.

[Nightjar]

IME not that heavily. I average a return of about 1.2%

[Mike Tomlinson]

In today's Torygraph, as written by the resident Chicken Little, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard:

"The global financial system has become dangerously unstable and faces an avalanche of bankruptcies that will test social and political stability, a leading monetary theorist has warned.

"The situation is worse than it was in 2007. Our macroeconomic ammunition to fight downturns is essentially all used up," said William White, the Swiss-based chairman of the OECD's review committee and former chief economist of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS)"

But more worrying is this:

"The European banking system may have to be recapitalized on a scale yet unimagined, and new "bail-in" rules mean that any deposit holder above the guarantee of E100,000 will have to help pay for it"

As I said earlier, now may be the time to spread your deposits around so that you don't have >£75k in any one institution.

or

[Adrian]

On Wed, 20 Jan 2016 10:07:07 +0000, Nightjar >> The returns are not brilliant - the fund currently awards 1.35% in

YE might not be that representative.

£1,000 for one year, expected return - zero. £1,000 for five years, expected return - £50.

[Mike Tomlinson]

En el artículo , Adrian escribió:

It's only worth it if you stick in the maximum holding.

£50k 1 yr - expected return - £500 5 yr " £2500

which matches my experience.

Still better odds than the Stupid Tax, aka lottery. And you get your capital back when you need it.