More on grid prices shortfalls...and margin reserves

[The Natural Philosopher]

On looking closely at the data, it appears that the high prices that have once again turned up today are a result of a far lower than anticipated (700MW versus 1.8GW) delivery of wind power. Solar power is also low but I have no data on what was forecast, on this gloomy day.

I have always maintained that intermittency was a greater problem than inability to forecast: In this case it looks like inability to forecast has had a significant effect on wholesale prices for those who had relied upon wind to deliver, when it didn't.

Largely the shortfall has been taken up with extra hydro, and stopping exports to France.

Oh, and an OCGT unit has just come online...

[Andy Burns]

So another nearly £1000/MWh spike at lunchtime today, even though the demand was lower than yesterday and lower than the forecast unlike yeterday which was higher than forecast, the evening peak is 8GW higher than lunchtime (same pattern as always) so /why/ are they struggling to get generators providing power at lunchtimes?

Has someone (or they all collectively) found a good way to take the piss on pricing?

[The Natural Philosopher]

What happened is that at midday wind was a GW below forecast, now its comfortably above.

There is margin there, it just wasn't online because the wind was expected to do more.

Lots of OCGT plant seems to be online now and again.

[Chris Hogg]

Are they just making sure it works OK, in the run up to what may be a cold winter?

[The Natural Philosopher]

Maybe. But I think its also profitable at the current prices to go on the market with it.,

[Andy Burns]

No price spike so far today, looks like they were charging generators £15/MWh to "take it off your hands guv" at 5am ...