gridwatch

yes. onshore wind starts around 16p and offshore is more - towards 30p, and solar is around 40p.

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has some outline calculations to see how these are derived, using similart models for all the energy sources. But the actual costs of e.g. new coal plant and fuel prices are less easy to find than you might expect. NOr are O & M costs of power stations something people publish on the net.

Additionally it's in nay ways an 'accounting decision' to add the cost of backup to wind. And indeed to reliably give a cost to capital intensive plant.

If yuou dont understand intermittency and accounting practices you can always cherry pick something and make false claims - as Renewable UK do

- about anything.

The models in that paper use a simple accountingprinciple. Cost of money is assumed constant between all forms of power capital investmnent. No favours by way of low interest loans are applied to any technology. Capital costs are written off linearly over the expected lifetime of the equipment, and average capacity factors are applied to the income streams that accord well with MEASURED (rather than claimed) real world capacity factors.

In the case of gas backup the problem is even more thorny, so that model takes the total cost of suppliying a fixed amount of power by a gas/renewable combination,. and adding the excess cost of providing te backup over and above what the backup would have cost if it were the sloe supplier of electricity, to the renewable source,. pro rata.

I.e. you have te cost say of a GWh of gas. Then you have the cost of a mixture of a GW of gas and a GW of wind, balancing each other. That is more expensive. The gas consumption is assumed to go down, but that is actually morethan offset by the cost of the wind, for example.

Then you take the *excess* cost over the gas alone situation, and apply that excess cost *entirely* to the energy the wind farm produces. To get a true and fair estimate of how much that part of the energy mix costs you over and above what you would otherwise have paid. The wind itself doesn't cost that, but putting it on the grid *does cost that much extra* . Naturally that never enters into renewable UKs estimates of renewable energy costs. They lie about the real life achieveable capacity factors,(30-40% they say, 22%-25% in reality) they lie about the lifetime of wind turbines (they say 25 years, the reality is 10-12 years) they ignore the cost impacts elsewhere on the grid (cost of subsidising now unprofitable gas sets, cost of uprating the grid to deal with high and variable trans national power flows) and its generators and they totally ignore the social and environmental costs (detsroys house prices, tourist industries, and jobs that only exist because energy is cheap) of their technology.

If you model the direct cost in a spreadsheet, you can see that capacity factor andcapital asset lifetime and amortization periods are absolutely crucial in defining the cost of the electricity. Especially in terms of sort lifetimes. Whether a knuke last 40 or 60 yers is not a huge difference..the capital depreciation is 2.5% or 1.6% per year, and that will be dwarfed by the interest on the money at say 7.5% a year. And O&M costs - the cost of keeping the whole shebang working., could easily be 10%-15%. But when you get to a ten year lifetime that's 10% depreciation per year, and the cost does start to be highly impacted.

Then we have capacity factors. a windfarm that operates at a claimed onshore 27% CF but actually only delivers 22% has just added 25% to the cost of that electricity. If its offshore, and expected to deliver 40% CF but only scrapes 25% its even worse.

So we have the sheer chutzpah of the renewable industry claiming 'grid parity' and saying they 'still need subsidies' in more or less the same breath. The first statements represents their marketing and their faux estimates, the second recognises the actual reality of the true costs.

Reply to
The Natural Philosopher
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nevertheless it is in fact WRONG.

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If it is not connected because the cables haven't been laid, then it is by definition NOT AVAILABLE CAPACITY.

Says who?

And where did it go to?

Well in which case its a moot point as to whether or not BM reports should be quoting it as 'available' on their site.

But if you want to say that there is 7GW plus of available capacity on the grid from metered wind farms, be my guest. The fact is that in reality it has never ever, even on high wind days generated more than....

mysql> select max(wind) from day;

+-----------+ | max(wind) | +-----------+ | 5304 | +-----------+

5.3GW. Ever. Even with the best possible wind conditions.

So wind is even shittier than we thought.

>
Reply to
The Natural Philosopher

And that spread sheet says "Registered Capacity" ie. the sum of what the rating plates on the generators say.

If you take out all the farms that don't have a "Settlement BMU name" you get 5919. That difference is 10% which from observation isn't far from the mark for the number of turbines feathered on a windy day...

And one assumes that without a "Settlement" name the farm can't get paid as no one knows who to settle with. You can bet no one is going to feed the grid power if they ain't going to get paid for it.

Reply to
Dave Liquorice

The market for electricity GENERATION has been FULLY DEREGULATED since 1990. You cannot seem to grasp this point at all. There have been next to no interventions by OFFER and later OFGEM in the generation market. Left to the market is EXACTLY what we have now (with the exception of wind and solar)

The politicians and the regulator have in the main being very 'hands off' with generation except when they have had to bail out the nuclear sector. A number of generation sites of many fuel types have gone to the wall and / or changed hands more than once. The price dropped through the floor a decade or so ago. Zero investment, plants changing hands for a quid.

The free market doesn't work because the free market is always, without exception for short term gain and anything long term doesn't ever matter.

That is why we are in the shit we are now. It's Thatchers enduring legacy that is crippling this country. She f***ed the miners, she f***ed the country and from beyond the grave she will do so for generations to come.

Reply to
The Other Mike

The information IS correct. Elexon was "National Grid Settlements" for a number of years, it is now operated at arms length.

The live data they have for generation and transfers is supplied to them by National Grid with an accuracy of 0.1% Submissions for generation and interconnector availability are from the generation or interconnector operator and are submitted electronically.

The common pool of data is supplied back to National Grid and selected parts of the data are supplied back to generation and interconnector operators.

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You fail to understand that a connection to the grid made be made but the generation may not generate for some time after the date of that connection.

bmreports

The information is in there for every single generating unit that has operational metering dating back to 2008

The London array, or at least part of it connected to the grid under reference T_LARYW-1 first generated and exported to the grid at around 18:00 on the 4th January 2013 (initially 25MW peaking to 35MW at 21:00)

It's an infinite bus. No one knows.

They are not quoting it as being available. The figure listed for wind generation is the sum total of all generation for which operational metering is in place. That is made very clear. The declaration of actual maximum availability is submitted by the same mechanism as any other generation operator. It appears in the individual BM Reporting unit data after the data has become historic and for advance notification, as a combined total by fuel type in the "2 - 14 days and 2 - 52 weeks Output Usable By Fuel Type"

There is connection capacity provided for 7136MW, and I would not expect the output to reflect that, it doesn't for any other fuel type. You only need to see the wind entry for 2 - 14 days and 2 - 52 weeks Output Usable By Fuel Type to see that. For wind it currently doesn't even reach 7GW 52 weeks hence but a few weeks / months from now you might see vastly different figures.

You fail to understand that a connection does not mean 100% availability for generation (and this applies to all plant types not just wind)

5304MW generated from a declared availability of 5877MW seems somewhere about right in near ideal conditions. The maximum amount of wind generation able to be connected to the grid, given section 36 consent under the electricity act 1990, and equipped with operational metering, IS EXACTLY 7136MW. 1GW of it might be still in the factory or on a barge, 0.5GW of it might be undergoing mechanical tests on site, the rest might be broken, or with a flock of seagulls perched on a blade, or on fire.

It is not possible for anyone other than the grid system operator to determine availability in real time (obviously an operator of generation knows their own availability) You can get a feel for the situation two days in advance but current day figures are not available nor those at the time of gate closure. Historically you can look at the individual notifications on a per unit basis and the balancing actions.

I explained it to you in basic terms and you still don't seem to be able to understand the concept. Perhaps this 'real life' (gas) scenario may help.

Day 0 600MW of CCGT capacity is given consent by DECC

Day 1 -> Day 300 A new overhead line and 400kV substation is built. Day 1 Construction of the new CCGT commences on site Day 300 A physical connection to the grid is made Day 300 Operational Metering is enabled Day 300 Plant appears on bmreports Day 300 Plant appears on displays at National Control Day 301 Generator HV circuit breaker closed and the generator transformer is back energised Day 302 a backfeed of 1MW continuous is taken Day 350 There are peaks of 10MW five times a day as large auxiliary plant is energised

Day 410 Load tests commence at all power levels from 0 - 600MW

Day 449 Commissioning complete

Day 450 Generating plant handed over to operator, money changes hands Day 450 Commercial load commences Day 450 Generator output appears in sum total of availability for that plant type on bmreports Day 450 -> Submissions by the operator to the grid system operator (via elexon) are made for generating capacity at 600MW

Day 451 at 0801 a cooling pump fails and will be out of service for 30 days

A resubmitted generating capacity limit is made as 500MW starting at settlement period 16 on day 451 and continuing for 30 days.

The overall maximum output of the plant doesn't permanently change

The figure in the "2-14 Days Ahead Output Usable By Fuel Type (graph)" reflects this temporary reduced capacity of 500MW

If the CCGT was the only one on the system then the figure in "Generation By Fuel Type (table)" will be 500MW

The figure in bmreports for that particular unit shows a reduced figure for the settlement period concerned and will continue to do so until after the generation availability is redeclared.

The figure in the spreadsheet* associated with the BM reporting unit will always remain as 600MW unless there is a permanent redeclaration (i.e the plant stops CCGT operation and goes Open cycle on say one GT at a reduced output of 200MW)

  • The only thing you won't find in the 'public' area of bmreports is the conventional and nuclear plant equivalent of the wind spreadsheet - it's a restricted document.
Reply to
The Other Mike

Nice example today. The wind ain't blowing and we are burning *lots* of gas and exporting 0.67 GW to the Dutch (who have a lot of wind generation)...

Demand: 39.98 Coal: 10.19 (*) Nuke: 7.10 Gas: 19.33 Wind: 0.89 France: 0.99 Dutch: -0.67

(*) This has been very flat since the weekend, presumably the "dynamic" coal plants are out for summer maintenance.

Reply to
Dave Liquorice

It's the same for *all* generation types. That it is wind is irrelevant. Connection capacity for 7136MW is available. A particular wind turbine operator might not use that capacity but they have paid for the infrastructure at a defined point on the grid system to provide a connection of that capacity.

Generation above a certain MW level *on the transmission grid system* has to be registered in the settlement system. Below that registration is optional. Embedded generation connected at 132kV and below is not usually registered although there are a few exceptions.

All are metered locally but those that are not registered do not appear in the live or availability figures on bmreports.

All will get paid regardless of if they are in the settlement system or not.

Reply to
The Other Mike

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