that cold down here for that kind of thing, I would think.
The ground temperature in Florida is around 70F. That is the temperature of all those beautiful Florida springs. You want your pool quite a bit warmer than that. Water and concrete conduct heat well -- not like metal but well enough for insulation to make a big difference.
In the long run, the installation cost of solar (with virtually no operating cost) is tiny compared with the operating cost of a heat pump, so it's worth doing even if you do the heat pump also. Every bit of heat added by the sun doesn't have to be added by the heat pump. And you say tile -- if you have a concrete tile roof, then you should not be worrying about the weight of the solar heat system, which does not have much water in it at any given time. Just make sure to use a reputable installer so they don't damage the tile.
The larger unit will run less, but when you buy electricity, you pay for energy used. Energy = power times time. You have a power rat Edward