Be prepaired for a massive El Nino over the next 18-24 months if that bubble of very warm water in the south Pacific rises to the surface - which it most likely will. Hang onto your hats - and anything else that could blow away or blow down.
On 4/8/2014 11:27 AM, dpb wrote: ...
Meanwhile, a generation or two will have made their livings doing their work and some useful data will have been collected and some general advances in understanding global climatology will undoubtedly be of some longterm benefit. But, for the most part, it'll just turn out to have been an academic exercise of no real import.
Western NY had a slight rain on Monday, but nothing like that.
On 4/7/2014 2:32 PM, dpb wrote: ...
...
Actually, just noticed I reversed the Max High columns; the rest is correct.
What avoided the "nuclear winter" was an avoidance of nuclear conflict.
What will be the cause of "climate change" going the way of "Nuclear Winter"??
That there likely really isn't any outside of general variation? If you look over a longer period of time (like 10s of K years instead less than a lifetime) it's pretty clear we've been in a remarkably and unusually quiescent stage for quite a while...maybe it's time for a change; maybe it isn't.
How about avoiding giving elected officials any power to make decisions?
The power of elected officials to make ANY change, muchless change to mother nature's temper, is extremely limited at best.
In the US, our elected reps have been changing the laws, tax structure, the way people purchase medical care, and have enacted arbitrary and burdensome laws and penalties like photo enforced traffic lights, taxes and fees which are too numerous to mention. Due to all that change, the US economy is tragic.
Probably about .05" to .08" a few days ago in south central Nebraska. We are abnormally dry according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Western Nebraska is in a stage of drought. The monitor is here if you're interested.
Why heck feller, you folks don't have any mountains to break up all that wind. You listed Alabaster which is 75 miles South of me here in Eastern Birmingham. I live on Ruffner Mountain just outside of Ruffner Mountain Park and Nature Preserve. This neighborhood is filled with trees and every critter native to the area. My roommate had an African parrot in a cage on the front porch so the green squawker and talker could look out the windows and not be bored like he was inside the house. It wasn't unusual for us to hear a loud "Wham!" from the front of the house and when we looked, there was a stunned owl on the ground that had just flown into the window trying to get itself a tasty green feathered meal. Every morning starts with the calls of every variety of bird from the nature preserve and Sandy, my Rotthuahua, loves to chase the squirrels that infest the area along with every other sort of four legged critter you can imagine. There are fox and coyote in the area but I've never seen any. ^_^
TDD
There are a few things that man has done that could be contributing factors. In third world countries, rain forests are being cleared to open land up for cattle farming and cow farts contain a lot of green house gases. Pesticides that are very effective against termites have been banned which keep termites from eating "man made" wooden structures and the termites fart a lot of greenhouse gasses. Of course,
7 billion human beings are farting out a lot of greenhouse gasses. So it can be assumed that most farts are the fault of mankind and are one of the biggest contributors to global warming. ^_^TDD
I see the drought tongue sticking into Central Alabamastan and I think conditions have improved since a few years ago when reservoirs got low and there were some crop failures. I haven't heard anything in the news lately about any drought conditions in my area. ^_^
TDD
In North West Nebraska Panhandle we received .01" and we are very dry with the wind and dirt blowing every day.
An even better comparison is the big hoopla in the 70's about the
*cooling* trend. You had the "experts" in climate science warning that we could be entering a mini ice age. Time Magazine ran a cover story in 1977, "How to Survive the Coming Ice Age". Now the climate change camp will immediately claim that today we know so much more, better models, etc. But the same thing could have been said in 1977 compared to 1940, etc.That said, my position from about 2000 on was that we should take simple cost effective steps to reduce carbon emissions, where practical and possible. A simple example would be better insulation for houses, higher efficiency furnaces, etc. Given that that we have apparently had some of the hottest years here over the past decade, I would normally say we should probably ratchet up trying to reduce CO2 more aggressively. But the thing for me that indicates we can still wait is that global warming has stopped for the last decade. We're still near the peak, hence still having some years that are among the hottest on record, but if you look at a 100 year chart, it's flattening out for the last 10 years and appears like it could roll over and go back down.
Also, carbon emissions have steadily increased during that period, yet temperature has flattened out. If the temp curve breaks out on the upside from the 10 year consolidation, then I'd ratchet up the CO2 reduction program.
The problem with any aggressive response is that it's going to be costly. For example, we have plenty of cheap nat gas and replacing it with something else is going to be more costly. This is particularly bad since US industries, jobs, etc are at a disadvantage to places like China. If you put us at a further disadvantage, while China burns cheap coal and does what they want, the consequences to that are more predictable IMO, than global warming. So, I'd give it a few more years. I guess you can call me a global warming agnostic.
Isn't it amazing that the guys who study climate aren't aware that this is just normal variation? You'd think that they might actually know what the normal variation would be. I think they do.
Could you post some names and contact information so I can communicate with them about it? Perhaps a website or forum? o_O
TDD
There are lies, damn lies, statistics then there is climate change junk science. ^_^
TDD
Per dgk:
I don't know squat about climate science, but I get the impression that Antarctic ice core samples contain actual air from periods hundreds of thousands of years ago up to relatively recently - and that these samples tell what the CO2 concentrations were at those times. Kind of like growth rings on a tree tell a story of the tree's life.
What the normal variation is, I have no clue.... but I would think that somebody qualified to interpret the data would know. But I do keep hearing that recent numbers are way, way out of line with anything seen before.
ePer The Daring Dufas:
Would those guys even have IP connectivity?
Maybe you could glean some contact info by drilling down from
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