OT: The budget according to McCain - Part I

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Those who make up the market. Markets look at such things and as a whole make the myriad of decisions (both that it will go up and that will go down), behave in manner (buying or selling at what price point) that they feel is congruent with that decision. The net of all of these decisions is reflected in the price. You suugested that one person caused the spike. I wanted to know his or her name. Then I can see what he or she does and follow along and make tons of money.
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there was a trader years ago who ran up silver for whatever reasons
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snipped-for-privacy@aol.com wrote:

George Bush's brother, Neal. Who shall remain nameless.
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The Hunt brothers were the biggies in silver, at least late 70s early 80s. Ran the print shop I was working in at the time out of biz, so I remember it vividly.
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wrote:

Just like the stock market, right? Would you agree with that comparison?

Actually, I didn't suggest that in my previous message, but since you asked, here's an example of one person dicking around with your household budget and mine:
http://www.thetimes.co.za/Business/Article.aspx?idg2709
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Yep (And since the following sentence is sorta worded like one I write when I think I have a "gotcha" in my pocket, I look forward to your response-grin)

One guy did one small trade a few bucks (that he lost $600 on so it could not be that big) gets credit for dicking around with the household budget? The market (because this was a contrived trade) went back down immediately, before going back up and testing and breaking through.
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wrote:

Now we're getting somewhere. The stock market moves based on emotion, which is why an entire sector will sometimes collapse when one company within that sector reports bad earnings. That's not always smart, especially when investors don't notice that the earnings problems were only related to one company, not the whole industry.
This is how many traders dick around with oil. Three years ago: "...on fears of renewed violence in Baghdad..." What kind of morons thought violence in Baghdad was going to have any material effect on oil production, in a country which was barely producing any to begin with???

The news is full of comments from real oil industry insiders who say increased speculative interest is a significant factor. Read the news. "John Doe, analyst for Such-And-Such Incorporated...." Call John Doe. Let me know what he tells you about amateurs with too much money on their hands. They're nothing but day traders.
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Emotion is a PART, never said otherwise. That is part of the decision making process in humans. Not exactly a big shocker. They also go down when one does, because that might indicate that there problems throughout the sector. Many times a company within a sector reports bad earnings and the others stay the same or go up. Sometimes (seen this a lot recently) the company will report good earnings and taken to the woodshed. They emotional reactions also seem to be short lived. Called "blips" by Cramer and others. a

More worried about risk of spreading concerns. Also, most of the articles noted that as one of the reasons.

I pointed that out, although the significance is up for spirited debate. STill what one person was responsible for the increase over the last few years.
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wrote:

Well, neither you nor I know what percentage of the price movement is caused by what I'll continue to call "amateurs". But, every percentage point of improvement would help our economy if it lessens the extent to which fuel sucks the life out of people's wallets. Why not eliminate amateur-induced price swings, even if they're as small as just 2-4% of the action? (chose a random range of numbers there)
If you think it's a good idea to drill for oil in ANWR, you have no choice but to agree with me.
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Define amateur.

I always have a choice. My current choice is to ask what one has to do with the other that creates such a link?
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wrote:

Last summer, an employee of
*************************** *** CHEVRON *** ***************************
was interviewed on one of the Sunday news shows. That's an oil company. He said ANWR would be able to provide maybe 4% of our oil needs, maybe a little more, but all the excitement about ANWR was largely nonsense.
If you think drilling in ANWR is worthwhile, considering the tiny contribution it could make to our oil needs, than you must also agree that tiny price improvements are worthwhile, even if it means telling some amateurs that they need to take their gambling money to Saratoga instead of the commodity exchanges.
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No, I don't. Two different things. I am agnostic on ANWR for most of the reasons you describe. Couldn't hurt from a price standpoint and anything we can get internally is better than buying it from outside, if only for balance of payments. I get a kick out of those who says ANWR wouldn't make an impact, but if we open up the strategic reserve, it would help. The major overlooked and probably greater resource is the areas of the Gulf of Mexico off of FL that their NIMBY Congresscritters put off limits years ago. Again, define amateur. Sorta required before we can discuss this logically (a first for Usenet-grin).
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It always amuses me that the more uniformed or misinformed they are, the more they think they know how to fix everything. In this case, accusing "amateurs" of manipulating the futures market is quite comical. The typical amateur opens a futures account with 10K and lasts about a year before losing it all. With $10K, they could buy a whopping 2 futures contracts for all of 2000 barrels of oil. And that is supposed to be a base from which to manipulate world oil prices? LOL It's also the first time I've ever heard anyone accuse "amateurs" of manipulating markets. Ask any trader and they will tell you that they make money from volatility. Meaning, if you want to manipulate any market, as a trader, you would make more money by just cycling it back and forth, say from $80 to $100, instead of having it go straight up like oil has. Of course manipulation sounds better to folks like Joe, instead of more rudimentary concepts, like worldwide demand has gone up, OPEC finally has it''s production under control, etc...
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wrote:

Amateur: Anyone not trading on behalf of an oil company, or an industry whose product's price consists largely of fuel costs (like airlines).
Some examples: You Me Warren Buffett Mutual fund managers Your mother My father
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Okay. Now, how would you enforce that? Especially outside the US. Nice to make these pronouncements, but you also have to have a way to enforce it that is useable, but also passes constitutional muster.

Actually I bought a couple futures contracts last fall for a rather long road trip I was going to do. Figured out how much gas I was probably going to use and then bought a contract or two. Largely as intellectual exercise, but still fun. But under your scenario I am not really an amateur.
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wrote:

I'll answer your enforcement question with another question: Do you suppose brokerage firms know who owns each account? (For a clue, listen to A&C's "who's on first" routine.)
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Yep. Actually, after I thought about it, I realized that there are already some kinda sorta similar restrictions. There are qualified purchaser regs for some things like certain partnerships. If interested, http://www.sec.gov/rules/proposed/33-8041.htm for examples. However, you still haven't suggested how you would keep people outside the US from investing. I don't think you can get the genie back into bottle.
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wrote:

I suppose if a foreign customer's wire transfer (for trading capital) came from an account like "Uncle Miroslav from Budapest", it would fairly easy to differentiate from an oil broker's, especially after checking bank references.
If amateurs want to make stupid, emotional trading decisions, let 'em do it with stocks & bonds. If they stupidly inflate the price of Paychex or Kodak stock, who cares? I don't have to fill my tank each week with anyone's stocks.
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No I was talking about the vast numbers of Brits, Germans, Chinese, Japanese, etc. etc. that trade oil futures in THEIR home markets. If such trading was outlawed on the US exchanges, how do you propose making sure that those other COUNTRIES do the same thing. Or even pick up the slack and just move trades from US to elsewhere. Otherwise, you have just changed the locus of the problem and cut the US out of the lucrative part of those trades to no apparent gain.
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wrote:

This is true. I guess you'd need to "get to" the firms which stand the most to lose by hacking away part of their customer base. Of course, in some countries, you could find yourself sleeping with the fish for meddling that way, but still.....
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