I hope those reporting this earthquake prediction have considered how badly they probably are frightening millions of people. For a week. It's even worrying me and I live about 100 miles from the southern end of the Andreas Fault. Makes me wonder how accurate this is. I can't recall reading or hearing of one of these types of predictions in the past.
About three days down, two days or so to go. And of course it could come a bit later.
I know a guy who works for USGS. They've spend decades working on earthquake prediction. They're just rolling it out now. This warning did not go out until after it was reviewed and discussed by the California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council, which is made up of seismologists from several California USGS offices. The Council notified the state of their recommendation, including the statement,
"CEPEC recommends that local emergency services be advised of the potential for further earthquake activity and that the citizens of the affected regions should maintain a prudent level of earthquake preparedness."
After that, the actual public advisory was issued by California's Office of Emergency Services.
A new law just went into effect in California for the state to develop a statewide earthquake early warning system, which is supposed to be ready by February 2018. So these alerts will continue to be occasionally issued when the Council determines there is cause for concern.
The intent is not to scare the bejeebers out of people but to remind them to be prepared, since after all earthquakes are a fact of life in California and the next Big One is just a matter of time. Both individuals and government bodies and emergency services have to be prepared as best they can for the aftermath.
You know if they didn't issue an advisory, and a significant earthquake occurred, they'd be tarred and feathered afterward for not alerting the public.
Would you rather be warned and worried before hand or told about it afterwards? It's your choice as to whether or not you prepare for the possibility or just ignore the warnings and hope for the best.
I don't live in hurricane or earthquake country, but we do get lots of snow. I'd rather be told about a possible blizzard that never happens than not have the chance to stock the fridge and batten down the proverbial hatches.
When they predict high winds, which happens fairly often, I take the opportunity to look around the property and make sure things are secure. If the high winds never occur, I don't mind.
I live in "Tornado Alley", and warnings are taken seriously.
From the link below, it seems to be as much as 60 X to as low as 2 X the normal probability < ? > ... ... of a 300 year event ... Gee thanks :-) John T.
Scientists estimate the probability of a quake with a magnitude of
7.0 or higher on the southern San Andreas fault being triggered is as high as 1 in 100 and as low as 1 in 3,000. The average chance for such an earthquake striking on any given week is 1 in 6,000. That heightened probability will last through Tuesday.Earthquakes along the San Andreas typically occur every 300 years, said Morgan Page, a geophysicist with the USGS. Earthquake Science Center, but the southernmost end of the fault hasn't ruptured since
1690.On 10/03/2016 1:06 PM, snipped-for-privacy@ccanoemail.ca wrote: ...
So what happens after Tuesday when it turns out to not occur?
KenK can stop worrying...until the next warning.
dpb laid this down on his screen :
They will reschedule it for a later date.
I got "scared" by myself predicting an earthquake about 7 years ago. I was talking to my insurance agent about my homeowners policy. For the hell of it, I asked about earthquake insurance. The agent was taken aback, and said nobody had ever asked her about earthquake. I live a bit north of Chicago. She said she'd find out and get back to me. I mentioned this to my wife. The agent called back the next day and said the earthquake rider would cost $30 a year. I immediately had a vision of my wife and me crawling out of the rubble of my earthquake shattered house, her turning her dusty face to me and asking, "Did you pay the $30 for earthquake insurance?" So I've been paying that $30 every year.
They reschedule it for one day sooner than a later date?
Fracking earthquakes can happen anywhere. Is anyone fracking near you?
On 10/04/2016 3:44 AM, Mr. Farkle wrote: ...
Actually the fracking itself isn't the problem; it's the injection well sites that are the culprits.
Granted, the volume of water needing disposal is owing in large measure to the enhanced oil production process, but it's that end of it rather than the fracturing itself that is precipitating the tremblors...
As noted above, maybe CA should do some judicious "salting"...of course, it's an irreversible experiment should it be more successful that wished for... :)
Indeed. "Anywhere" is a relative term. There has to be a fault there too I believe.
dpb wrote in news:nsutfh$jf8$ snipped-for-privacy@dont-email.me:
When I moved here to AZ some 30 or 40 years ago we had a small earthquake - trembler - a few times a year. In the past years, 5 or 10 - they have been extremely rare, if at all. I think the fault has not moved for a long long time and when it does...
FromTheRafters wrote in news:nsugvp$ram$1 @news2.open-news-network.org:
I was hoping they'd cancel it instead.
On 10/04/2016 12:20 PM, KenK wrote: ...
5 or 10 yr is but a millisecond relatively on the time scales talking about so there's nothing that can be inferred from such a period of lower or even no activity.I'm guessing perhaps you've grossly underestimated the level of tongue-in-cheekness in my suggestions maybe... :)
...
So what, you've got 8 hr or so to go and the fault will have magically healed itself and the warning expires...
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