OT Get ready the economy is about to tank:(

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The BP oil spill disaster is going to hurt so much of our economy, the spill is going to loop all the way around florida. decimating fishing, beaches tourism etc over perhaps half our coast line.
if you own BP stock sell IMMEDIATELY!
BP although a multi national company will likely go bankrupt, and your stock will be worthless........
the economic side effects are going to kill our economy and push us into a worse recession.
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On Sun, 2 May 2010 08:27:36 -0700 (PDT), " snipped-for-privacy@aol.com"

Like XOM?
There may be a great buying opportunity but I doubt they go under
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On May 2, 11:39�am, snipped-for-privacy@aol.com wrote:

BP will survive in some fashion but they will have to go bankrupt. the secondary costrs are far beyond any companies ability to pay.
the current stock will be worthless, unless you have the paper share for fire starting.
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snipped-for-privacy@aol.com wrote: ...

What are you smokin' now, haller...BP _prints_ money. They'll never notice it more than a short while.
The thing that will cause far more economic damage will be the overreaction of the current Administration pandering to the masses to "do something" and create "change" -- ie, look to see attempts to add excessive regulation and nationalization-like policies.
--
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snipped-for-privacy@aol.com wrote:

Boy, you sure assume a lot of facts not in evidence.
1. There has been no finding that BP was in any way to blame. The whole thing could have been due to circumstances beyond the control of BP: a. The original fire could have been an act of terrorism*. b. There could have been a collision involving a submarine. c. The blow-out preventer valves could have been defective**. d. A lightning-strike could have caused the original fire.
2. Even IF BP is found to some degree liable, they have insurance for this sort of thing.
--------- * An oil rig is a "soft" target. They are not protected and extremely vulnerable. In the current case, the whole business could have been pulled off by a handful (as few as one) eco- or Muslim terrorists.
** A blowout preventer is a device attached to the wellhead at the sea floor. It contains at least two sub-devices used to stop the flow of fluids or gas. One sub-device is almost always a large valve - like a faucet - that is operated both remotely and manually. Another type of sub-device is a honkin' big hydraulic press that crimps the pipe, squeezing it shut.
It is extremely odd that the blowout-preventer cannot be used to stop the flow of oil. By standard and law they are tested frequently.
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HeyBub wrote: ...

Doesn't seem particularly odd to me at all...
It clearly didn't completely close before losing command signal from the ground (fractional seconds). How nearly closed it is is anybody's guess except for some who actually know what wellhead pressure, etc., is, that could estimate an unobstructed flow rate.
Now it's got the damage from the surface and that there's nolonger any support for a mile of pipe that can't be undamaged not to mention where ever the platform debris landed it probably makes getting access to the area w/ the ROVs difficult at best if not impossible.
--
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dpb wrote:

Following excerpted from document written by former engineer on sister platform and sent by an acquaintance who works in oilpatch around here...
"... all of the main pressure control equipment sits on the seabed the uppermost unmoving point in the well. This pressure control equipment the Blowout Preventers, or BOPs as theyre called, are controlled with redundant systems from the rig. In the event of a serious emergency, there are multiple Panic Buttons to hit, and even fail-safe Deadman systems that should be automatically engaged when something of this proportion breaks out. None of them were aparently activated, suggesting that the blowout was especially swift to escalate at the surface."
--
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The ROVs are there but the BOP can't be activated. The BOP is broke.
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snipped-for-privacy@att.bizzzzzzzzzzzz wrote:

Is there an echo here?...
"Now it's got the damage..."
I've seen now definitive reports on accessibility, etc., of the wellhead via the ROVs; only that they haven't had success on closing it so not sure what the actual state is.
I've seen pictures close-by pictures of the platform over the time from a few hours after the blowout to the collapse; nothing from under the water.
--
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wrote:

It is said the BOP was tested 10 days prior to the incident. Another suggestion was the BOP somehow warped during/after (?) the collapse and was not able to function as intended.
..."BP America Inc. Chairman Lamar McKay, appearing on ABC's "This Week" program, said fail-safe mechanisms on the rig that were designed to prevent an oil spill had not worked as predicted and that a "failed piece of equipment" was to blame for the spill, according to the New York Times and other media outlets.
BP spokesman Bill Salvin said McKay was talking about the blowout preventer as the failed equipment that caused the April 20 explosion of the Deepwater Horizon rig, which killed 11 people. ..."
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bp-officia-blames-failed-equipment-for-gulf-oil-s-2010-05-02?reflink=MW_news_stmp
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BP has a bad history of cost cutting and poor maintence which led to a refinery fire that killed a bunch of workers and a alaska pipeline leak, which led to a rebuild of the pipeline it was in poor shape.
Based on historical evidence BP cut corners to save money and have more profit
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Published by the MIT Review:
.."The Deepwater Horizon's BOP is a 450-ton set of hydraulic rams that straddles the wellhead, just above the seabed. When the well blew out last month, sending oil and natural gas up the well, signaling from the rig operators or loss of communication with the surface should have automatically released pneumatic pressure stored in the BOP's tanks, driving it to mechanically crimp or shear off the well pipe and close off the well."
..."BP is planning to drill through 18,000 feet of rock to reach down close to the bottom of the leaking well."
"Andy Radford, a petroleum engineer and senior policy advisor for offshore issues at the American Petroleum Institute, a Washington trade group, says BP needs to drill deep to create a relief well with sufficient mass to counteract the force of flowing oil. "You have pressure coming up the well from the producing formation. It's thousands of pounds per square inch coming up the hole. You need to be able to overcome that pressure with the kill fluids. The deeper you intersect, the less pump pressure you need to overcome the pressure of the well coming up," says Radford.
In a worst-case scenario, the force of one relief wells will prove insufficient, requiring drilling of a second, adding further delay."
http://www.technologyreview.com/energy/25238 /
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Have you read their balance sheet? Do you know what their cash reserves are? Do you know their non-cash assets and how much can be liquidated? Do you know their borrowing capacity?
Do you know how much insurance coverage they have? Do you know their contracts with the rig operator and how liability is assigned? Do you know how much insurance the rig operator has? Do you know their contracts with the equipment providers (like the blow out preventor) and how liability is assigned?
Until you do, you are spewing ignorance. One thing you can be sure of, a bunch of lawyers are going to get rich(er).
-- Doug
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wipe out fishing and tourism in the gulf of mexico from mexico to florida, then around the keys and up the coast carried by the gulf stream.
then try to clean this all up. mark my words it will bankrupt the company.
just like a nuke plant accident in us, that releases a lot of radiation and making a big part of the us not habitable....
will bankrupt whatever power company owns the plant. and do note your homeownewrs insurance has no coverage for nuke accidents or acts of war
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snipped-for-privacy@aol.com wrote:

They have insurance with AIG :o)
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On Sun, 2 May 2010 16:55:25 -0700 (PDT), " snipped-for-privacy@aol.com"

Given these fatalistic views, oil may travel to Europe. You do know the Gulf Stream bifurcates with a current flow towards Europe.
Maybe we can float some oil (sweet crude) to Cuba?
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Some commentator on the radio said this spill would cost between $5 and $15 billion dollars. I don't have a lot of faith in that number, nobody can really know at this point. But to put it in perspective, BP had $13 billion in cash and short term investments at the end of the quarter. They have a net worth (assets minus liabilities) of $104 billion with very low debt. So they have enormous borrowing capacities.
The Financial Times estimates insurers are going to lose about $1.5 billion from this.
Transocean (the rig operator) and Halliburton (the contractor cementing the well when the blowup occurred) have deep pockets, too. Not as deep as BP, but deep none the less. Transocean has $1.3 billion cash and short term investments, Halliburton, $3.4 billion.
As for tanking the economy, think it through. Where is the clean up money going to be spent? In the economy. It is going to buy equipment, supplies, and labor. For the short term (the next couple of quarters) it is likely to contribute slightly (less than .1%) to GDP growth. For the longer term, it will hurt slightly because the money is being spent for cleanup instead of being invested in more productive uses like more drilling.
-- Doug
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You're asking the wrong guy, but it seems likely to me there will be uncompensated damages. Here's an article that says Federal law, passed after the Exxon Valdez incident, limits BP liability for other damages to $75 million. http://www.rdmag.com/News/FeedsAP/2010/05/energy-us-law-may-limit-bp-liability-in-oil-spill /
From the view of the broad economy, the lost of tourists to the gulf will be replaced by gains of tourists elsewhere. People aren't going to say "I can't go to the gulf, so I won't go anywhere." They'll go to some other beach or the mountains, or whatever.
I know this spill will be hard on lots of people. It will also be a boon to others. The radio was just saying they are hiring clean up people at $48 an hour.

No, and I'm skeptical. When I was at Prince William Sound in 1993, the active clean up was finished and the fishing industry was booming again. There are still some lingering effects from the spill, but scientists are debating how significant they are.

Don't misunderstand me. This is a disaster of biblical proportions. Although it is not yet as bad as the Valdez spill. That one dropped 250,000 barrels of oil. At the current rate of 5,000 barrels a day, it will take 50 days to equal the Valdez.
But it is not going to tank the economy and probably not isn't going to bankrupt BP.
-- Doug
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Congrats-- Never before have I seen so much crap spewed in so few words.
Did you mean to post this to alt.i-should-just-kill-myself-today-and-end-the-misery ?
Jim
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wrote:

What, you haven't plonked that guy yet?
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