It's pretty clear from the long, hard slog Mitt's had over these last few months that the Republican rank and file is almost in an "Anybody but Romney" mode. Look at all the flirtations they've had, from Perry to Cain to Gingrinch and now Santorum. If the economy continues to improve, the greatest weapon in the Republican arsenal will have been nullified, despite their numerous attempts to create crises that they can lay at Obama's feet. So far, he's making the Teflon Don, John Gotti look as sticky as flypaper in that regard.
FWIW, favorable polls can be damaging to a leading candidate because people who might have tried hard to get out to vote for him figure he's got it in the bag and don't vote. However, I think that modern polling techniques have come a long way and that they've been generally suprisingly accurate. The pollsters nowadays make sure to ask if the person they're polling actually intends to vote.
It's clearly the most exciting election we've had for a long, long time. I'm counting on Rush and the Birthers to do some serious damage to the Republicans while trying to get at Obama. So far, they've done wonders. For the Democrats. They'd do much better with a "tailor" candidate that could remove some of the lunatic fringe from the fabric of the Republican Party. Instead they go with people like Palin, as fringey as they get. I take that back. I forgot about Michele Bachmann, who's so far out there even her fellow Republicans don't take her seriously.
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