OT Chinese productivity

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On 11/14/2010 8:23 AM, Robert Green wrote:

I'll throw in the usual disclaimer here about apples and oranges, due to different countries measuring infant mortality in different ways. Many countries, even ones with the medical technology available, do NOT take extraordinary measures to save infants born with major problems, and they may end up not counted as a live birth. China's numbers are also likely skewed by their heavy emphasis on abortion for population control. If a couple knows the baby has severe problems, they may decide not to use up their allotment, and terminate the pregnancy.
Too bad there is no way to get good numbers by country showing what percentage of pregnant ladies avail themselves of what medical care IS available, and/or follow guidelines for how to have a successful pregnancy. I realize it is anecdotal, but I keep seeing stories in the paper about children born in clinics where the mother had few or any prenatal checks, here in USA. And if the mother kept smoking/drinking/eating junk food while pregnant, that of course makes it even harder for the newborn to thrive.
And as an added monkey wrench in the numbers, has anyone sliced and diced them as to average age of the mother while pregnant? All else being equal, a 20 YO mother has better odds of a healthy kid than one in her late 30s.
--
aem sends....


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<stuff snipped>

Well, most other countries don't give out "crack checks" each month to unwed mothers in the volume that we do. )-: I read some horrible statistic somewhere that said crack dealers synchronize their shipments to coincide with issuance of welfare and other monthly social payouts.
I agree wholeheartedly that the numbers I quoted have an incredible amount of slop in them, but other countries really are a hell of a lot more proactive in making sure all women get good prenatal care. I expect they're discovered that the government ends up supporting babies with birth defects in the long run so it's in everyone's interest to make sure they're born healthy. We'll figure it out, eventually.
-- Bobby G.
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I have never got around to officially running the numbers, but at least among the developed countries there is a pretty good eyeball corelation between rank in teenage pregnancies and infant mortality (with the US first in the former and last in the latter). You also see non-medical societal influences making a large impact on other medical relationships. For example, a 16 y/o killed by drugs or in a drive by does more damage to the life expectancy than keeping an 76 y/o geezer alive a couple extra years. If anything, the medical system is probably doing a great job in seeing the differeneces aren't worse by saving a good number of high-risk babies. A study a few years ago corelated the rise of trauma centers and the lowering of the murder rate because the TCs were turning what formerly would have been murders into attempted murders or assault.
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"Even I realized that money was to politicians what the ecalyptus tree is to
koala bears: food, water, shelter and something to crap on."
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This is very impressive.
American companies wrap so much "process" around every project these days that most budgets for product or software development, for example, go only to completing the required process paperwork. Long before one gets to solder the first wire or write the first line of code. Then the business screams at how much it cost and "why are the programmers just starting now?" 3 weeks before promised delivery? What usually happens is a crappy shoddy product is developed because all the money for the project was eaten up by the legal and CYA paperwork.
Somehow I wish American companis just went out like this and did things again. Believe me I'm in corporate america working in manufacturing, we dont do shit any more but paperwork. Then commoditize the most important part, the build, out to India or China where they dont think, they just follow the specs, which are usually crappy because the Americans had to spend no time on that either, because of all the CYA paperwork since Sarbanes Oxley laws came in.
Believe me, Amaerica is up shit's creek. We've thrown out the baby with the bathwater. The new leaders of the world in actually doing things that dont involve a lawer, will be China and India. The next generation is having it's future stolen as we speak. Govt cant help anyone because they are in hock to the govt pensions and unions, so there simply is little money left to do govt projects without printing up more cash.
China and India are dumbfounded by how much we give away, they would never do that.
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On Sun, 14 Nov 2010 18:57:33 -0800 (PST), RickH

And printing more cash is exactly what we are doing now:
"Quantitative easing (QE) is a monetary policy used by some central banks to increase the supply of money by increasing the excess reserves of the banking system, generally through buying of the central government's own bonds to stabilize or raise their prices and thereby lower long-term interest rates. This policy is usually invoked when the normal methods to control the money supply have failed, i.e the bank interest rate, discount rate and/or interbank interest rate are either at, or close to, zero. It has been termed the electronic equivalent of simply printing legal tender." http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantitative_easing
Remember Jimmy Carter's inflation? You ain't seen nothing yet.
--
Work is the curse of the drinking class.

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IIRC, Japan is entering the 12th year of its "lost decade".
--
"Even I realized that money was to politicians what the ecalyptus tree is to
koala bears: food, water, shelter and something to crap on."
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It's not. Back then, we were hit by a demographic bulge, increased social programs (Medicare, welfare), the oil shock, and, most of all, Nixon's wage-price controls, the latter which worsened inflation and was probably the biggest factor and took a decade to fix. But today there's no inflationary threats becausw we have too much idle industrial capacity and labor is powerless. Deflation is the far bigger danger in this economy.
Here's what I've asked everybody who's criticized government economic policy: What's your realistic alternative, emphasis on "realistic"? Here's something that may help, but it doesn't explain the consequences of any choices:
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2010/11/13/weekinreview/deficits-graphic.html
Also we have only one problem in the short-intermediate term, and that's unemployment, which cuts $200B from government revenue for every 1% point increase in unemployment. And in the long term, our only problem is Medicare, which could be helped a lot if we didn't have so much inefficient private health insurance (i.e. adopt universal Medicare). The graphs on page 4 of this CBO report shows the projection:
http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/93xx/doc9385/06-17-LTBO_Testimony.pdf
Direct link to graph:
http://www.motherjones.com/files/images/blog_federal_outlays.jpg
BTW, we're 5 years away from the date when our national debt was estimated to be paid off completely if Clinton economic policies had been perpetuated. What a difference a two terms with dunce in charge can make (wars are no excuse -- Johnson balanced the budget in 1968 when the much costlier Vietnam War was at its peak). Notice that half our deficits have been due to the GW Bush tax cuts:
http://www.motherjones.com/files/images/blog_deficit_cbpp.jpg
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On 11/16/2010 2:11 PM, larry moe 'n curly wrote: (snip)
Notice that half

mugger handing back half the contents of your wallet would be. The deficits are due to ONE thing- Congress spending too damn much money. Cut out the duplication, un-neccessary programs, and turf warfare between agencies and military services, and you could probably cut the federal non-entitlement budget by 1/3. My favorite example is DoD vs. the Rest of Fed Gov. Almost every program and function on civilian side has a mirror image within DoD, even when they could easily be combined. DoD truly does not regard themselves as part of the Federal Government.
The government needs to learn that It Isn't Their Damn Money, and they aren't Santa Claus by taking less of it from us subjects, er, citizens.
--
aem sends...

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wrote Re Re: OT Chinese productivity:

Go here
<http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2010/11/13/weekinreview/deficits-graphic.html
for an interactive exercise to see if YOU can fix the budget gap. I was able to do it easily.
--
Work is the curse of the drinking class.

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When I do a budget for my home I cut the most from the highest expense and there are no sacred cows. The highest expense is the military so why would you only cut 218 billion from troop reduction?
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Just the GOP. The Dems are bought and paid for by the Unions and trial lawyers.
--
"Even I realized that money was to politicians what the ecalyptus tree is to
koala bears: food, water, shelter and something to crap on."
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wrote Re Re: OT Chinese productivity:

Bingo!!
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Here is Chinese productivity in the form of population control:
http://www.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/asiapcf/11/15/china.building.fire/?hpt=T2
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