Need to replace Electric Baseboard Heating Units & Replacement Windows

[<kjpro]

IF "you are familiar with"... how&#39;s that?

But that doesn&#39;t change the fact that you want to either "nit pick" or really have very little knowledge about furnaces in the last 10+ years.

[Mike]

Hi Paul, I had already completed the ten suggestions in segment #6. One thing that had an immediate positive effect was installing a heavy duty "door sweep" from HD. Took 20 minutes to cut and install and it immediately stopped a cold draft in the living room.

BGE energy costs - bill for dec 15 - jan 15th &#39;07

415 kWh x .1045 43.38 440 kWh x 10303 45.33

distribution charge 855 kWh x .02275 19.45 customer charge 7.50

gas

14 units x therm factor 1.085 therms used 15 customer charge 13.00 distribution charge 3.93 franchisr taX .06 local tax .33 totasl delivery charge 17.32 total gas commodity 14.36

note delivery charges are more than gas commodity charges

Today a Trane sales guy came by to give me a quote on a 90% efficient gas furnace, complete duct work, HP w/ electric back up

[Paul M. Eldridge]

Hi Mike,

Thanks for the update and for providing us with your billing information. As you&#39;ve discovered, very simple and inexpensive measures such as applying weather stripping to the bottom of a door can have a positive impact on your physical comfort as well as your energy bills. Keep up the good work!

If my math is correct, during this billing cycle you paid 12.65 cents per kWh for electricity and roughly $1.25 per therm of natural gas (I&#39;ve excluded the basic customer charges because they&#39;re flat monthly fees that don&#39;t change according to volume of use).

I take it there was a rate increase effective January 1st that accounts for the two different electricity rates shown? If that&#39;s the case, your combined energy and distribution charges are now 12.73 cents per kWh.

One therm of natural gas is equal to 100,000 BTUs, so at 90 per cent conversion efficiency, your net heat gain is 90,000 BTUs (26.4 kWh), and your effective cost per kWh, at $1.25/therm, works out to be 4.74 cents. That means the heat provided by your electric baseboard heaters is currently 2.7 times more expensive than what would be supplied by a high efficiency natural gas furnace. Ouch!

However, bear in mind natural gas prices are generally far more volatile than electric. This time last year, a therm of natural gas likely cost in the order of $1.75 to $2.00, so the equivalent cost per kWh of gas heat would have been between 6.64 and 7.58 cents.

I don&#39;t think anyone can accurately predict the cost of natural gas one, two or five years from now. Personally, I have to tell you I&#39;m more than a little worried. U.S. domestic production peaked some thirty-five years ago and, year after year, the U.S. has become increasingly more dependent upon foreign imports to make up for the slack. Most of those imports (some 90%) come from Alberta, but Alberta&#39;s gas production has already started its decline and a growing share of the remaining supplies will be used to fuel its tar sands operations (an estimated 1.4 to 1.6 billion cubic feet per day by 2015 and perhaps double that by 2030). That means the U.S. will be turning to LNG imports from other countries, some of whom are politically unstable or don&#39;t exactly share a cordial relationship with the U.S. Now, everything may turn out just hunky-dory and gas prices will remain relatively stable, but you might ask yourself if you&#39;re comfortable assuming that level or risk. I&#39;m not.

At the end of the day, a combination high efficiency gas furnace and heat pump probably makes a lot of sense. Both would operate at peak efficiency within their allocated temperature bands and it would provide you with at least some fuel switching capability should the price of either electricity or natural gas change dramatically in the years to come. Since you want central air anyway, the incremental cost of moving to a heat pump is very modest, especially in light of the potential savings on your annual heating bill.

That said, if the initial cost of this combo solution is too high or the installation of the required ductwork too complicated, I would be inclined to simply leave your electric baseboard heaters in place and install a multi-zone high efficiency ductless heat pump. Much lower upfront cost, very easy to install (no duct work required) and it would very likely cut your current heating and cooling costs by more than half. A combination gas/heat pump solution might save you even more, but it becomes a question of how much more and at what additional cost. If the Trane solution saves you an extra $200 to $300.00 each year, but the difference in price is $4,000.00, is it really worth it? It could be that investing that same $4,000.00 in extra insulation, caulking and air sealing, replacement doors and windows, Energy Star appliances or some other home improvement could save you even more.

I and the other members of this forum would be more than happy to help you evaluate your options, so please don&#39;t hesitate to ask.

Cheers, Paul

[Paul M. Eldridge]

Hi Mike,

I&#39;ve previously touched on some of my concerns related to U.S. natural gas supplies. I thought I&#39;d share some additional background to help explain why I&#39;m so worried:

"U.S. demand for natural gas is outstripping domestic supply as well as available Canadian supply... By 2030, the gap between demand and supply is projected to reach 21%.

As we exhaust domestic supplies of natural gas, the United States will need to rely increasingly on natural gas that is brought in from overseas... LNG helps the nation meet its very real and pressing need for new energy supplies now."

Source:

"As worldwide demand for natural gas grows, the United States faces stiff competition for a product it badly needs. At a recent briefing focusing on the new market dynamics of liquefied natural gas, the Center for Liquefied Natural Gas (CLNG) stressed the United States will be at a competitive disadvantage for the product unless new terminals are built to import natural gas from around the world.

According to the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA), natural gas consumption is expected to continue to rise around the globe. Demand will grow not only in the key gas markets, but also in markets that historically have not been major natural gas consumers such as China and India. EIA predicts that annual natural gas consumption will grow in China by 6.8 percent and in India by 5.9 percent. Much of the gas that enters these markets will be imported from around the world in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG)."

Source:

As stated above, the United States will be competing with numerous buyers, not just China and India. North Sea production peaked several years ago and, as a result, the U.K. expects to be 90 per cent reliant on foreign imports. Likewise, continental Europe is heavily dependent on Russian gas and Russia has already demonstrated a willingness to use gas exports as a political and economic club; look to Europe to diversify its supply, in an effort to protect its national security interests.

Here in Canada, Alberta&#39;s natural gas fields have already begun their decline and the situation off Nova Scotia is looking rather grim. Nova Scotia&#39;s Sable fields are only one-third the size previously thought (1.36 TCF versus 3.6 TCF) and daily output has fallen from

18.1 BCF in 2001 to 12.8 BCF in 2005, with that downward trend continuing to gather further momentum (btw, virtually all of this gas is exported to New England).

So, just to wrap things up, it&#39;s the long-term outlook for natural gas that troubles me the most, with the prospect for considerable upward price pressure going forward. This is why I&#39;m encouraging you and everyone else to plan ahead and do whatever you can now to minimize your risk. This really boils down to just two things: first, reduce your demand by insulating and air sealing your home and by selecting the most energy-efficient heating and cooling systems; and, secondly, diversify your supply options so that you can easily switch fuels based on price and availability. As previously discussed, a combination high efficiency gas furnace and heat pump would be an excellent way to do this. Alternatively, you might simply stick with your electric baseboards and add a high efficiency ductless heat pump that would offset as much of this electric heat as possible; a high efficiency heat pump with a HSPF of 10 or higher would cut your current heating costs by two-thirds or more, and since BGE&#39;s generating mix is predominately nuclear and coal, the long-term supply situation should remain fairly stable.

Cheers, Paul