On Tuesday, January 13, 2015 at 7:12:44 PM UTC-5, Ralph Mowery wrote:
IDK what the exact mix was, but I suspect overall there was more wind
damage in terms of number of properties, but the flood damage, where it
happened was way more devastating. I'm a couple miles inland, had
substantial wind damages, ie shingle blow off. Big tree fell on a house
down the street, crushing it, etc. Lots of damage like that all
around. But no flood damage here. In the areas close to the ocean or
bay, they got flooded or destroyed. Worst was right on the ocean where
many multi-million dollar houses were completely destroyed. That area
is a narrow strip, only a couple city blocks wide, with the ocean on
one side, the bay on the other. The worst areas, the ocean flowed right
across to the bay, taking houses and the road with it.
It also had some bizarre aspects, that you would never have predicted.
On that strip with ocean and bay, there is an area with those
multi-million dollar homes on large lots. Shortly after, it changes
suddenly to more modest and typical shore houses. Within a few miles,
you have small little summer houses that look more like one room shacks.
They are right on top of each other, in rows, each one is probably on
30 x 30 lot. They look like it wouldn't take much to finish them off.
Yet, they were largely intact, little damage. The multi-million homes,
most of the town, suffered huge damages, with many houses ripped
apart, total losses. A few were swept into the bay.
I think the essential difference was that some area are probably just
a few feet higher, so the flood waters couldn't cut across from ocean
Same thing here. If this place floods, it would have to be something
like a 100ft+ tidal wave that can make it inland 2+ miles, etc.
They analysed places where they had claims and it wasn't a designated
flood plain and then extrapolated that to anywhere that looked similar
on a topographical map.
You can file a letter of appeal and if you and your neighbors are
willing to pay for an engineering study that backs your claim, you
might win. It has happened here is SW Florida several places.
On 01/13/2015 6:42 PM, firstname.lastname@example.org wrote:
I remain intrigued by the analysis revealing that such an obvious fact
that given that hurricanes in particular, if severe, are widespread
events that any one in an actuarial business could neglect to account
for common cause in estimating liabilities and hence setting rates. It
just seems amazing to me that not one but essentially all blew it (so to
speak :) )...
Au contraire...in FL alone, "Eleven insurance companies went bankrupt,
and 30 others lost up to 20 percent or more of their surplus. About
930,000 policyholders were left with no coverage options. ..."
The biggest single thing they are doing in Florida has been a much
tougher building code since Andrew and inspections to see if a given
existing home has these wind mitigation features. Most of my county
is in the 150MPH wind zone and on the barrier islands it is 160.
The basic flood code here is the bottom floor needs to be 14' ASL. At
the beach that means pretty tall pilings. When you get away from the
beach, you are still going to have a house on a hill. They will
typically truck in 100 yards of dirt or more to build each hill East
of 41. It is more if you are seaward of that.
I am 11' on the flood map and that means I need 3' of dirt under my
house ... minimum.
The way flood maps are going, I think I would go more like 5 or 6 if I
was building new. An extra $14,000 or $20,000 worth of dirt now, could
pay you back in a decade or less in flood insurance alone.
On 01/14/2015 12:12 PM, email@example.com wrote:
That certainly is _a_good_thing_ _(tm)_ if folks are going to build in
high-risk areas (and they are; that's a given).
It's just as significant, though, that FL (and the rest of the hurricane
belt, altho most to a lesser degree) has totally revamped their
insurance regulations and explicitly include a "catastrophic" modeling
into the rate-setting computations of risk.
On Wed, 14 Jan 2015 10:29:58 -0800 (PST), trader_4
They still took a big hit. Don't be shocked if the old companies you
have known forever simply stop writing policies near the water and you
start seeing new names for companies that do that.
It is virtually impossible to get homeowners from any company you have
heard of in Florida if you are within 10 miles of the coast.
It is the way State Farm, Allstate etc limit liability. They just do
not write policies.
I lost track of the final outcome but at one time 5-6 years ago,
State Farm was threatening to exit the state entirely (auto, life
everything) because FL was trying to tell them they had to write wind
insurance and also how much they could charge.
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive,
but what they conceal is vital."
When Donna hit, Ft Myers was a sleepy little town and there was not as
much money to be lost here. People were smart enough not to be
building castles on the beach.
It was really the last memorable storm before Charley and Wilma.
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