It is this very criteria that causes me to STAY with a gas heater, although I BRIEFLY considered an electric unit.
At my former home, we were all-electric. I replaced the 40 with a 50 JUST IN TIME for the three, growing daughters to "discover" hot water. The timing was PERFECT! I had no complaint about the unit, recovery rate or otherwise. *I* always had hot water and that was good enough for ME!!
Now, I must replace my aging 50-gallon. Downsize; High-recovery; High efficiency; name brand; cheapie; in-between; This is silly.
I am currently leaning toward downsizing to a 40 but, this time, a high-recovery unit.
The OP mentioned their preference for a FULL-TUB bath. We have one "full" bath with a whirlpool tub (one person). One whirlpool bath and a 38-gallon model will surely be exhausted. Given that the tub is virtually never used, it is of VERY little influence in my selection process. Heck, I remember taking baths when I was little and my mom coming in with a huge pot of water she'd heated on the stove to augment what came out of the tap. I don't remember for sure, but I presume the water heater had given its all at these times!