Random responses:
These are brand-new (less than a year old) ceiling pot fixtures. A "standard" HD brand of some sort. Cheapies, but reasonably well built. Rated at 100W I believe.
BR30s are medium size incandescent flood lights, 60W apiece - the fixtures are designed specifically for this size. The halogen equivalent is "PAR30" IIRC.
So heat is unlikely to be a problem. We haven't even installed the fixture bezels yet.
Vibration is certainly a possibility, but we're aware of it (I wrote the FAQ on that! ;-), and some of the lights that are dying aren't anywhere near floor space likely to have much vibration. CFs on the same area (in previous ceiling mounted J-boxes, same switches) also _seemed_ to have a relatively shortened lifespan.
There is no aluminum on (or upstream) of this circuit. The only aluminum is a subpanel feed to the garage.
No, we're not having dimming/brightening problems. Many other bulbs in the house have more than adequate lifetimes (ie: 10 year+ on some reasonably well used flood lights). So it's not an overall voltage problem.
As we've not had a lot of luck with CFs on this circuit already, I'm hesitant about going for them until I understand what's happening.
[Our kitchen ceiling lights also have similar problems, despite being on a dimmer.]I should check the voltages on this circuit just in case. A pair of new switches is probably a good idea too.