Re: Global warming? "Evidence" from my garden?

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Is that really enough evidence for an indictment?

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it is in Europe now..............
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Actually it's part of a 10-12,000 year cycle, but no one alive was around for the last one, so they can't imagine time on that scale.
--
Ann, gardening in Zone 6a
South of Boston, Massachusetts
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Ice cores from Greenland indicate that the last "little" ice age came on in 7 years. That was the one that killed people in N. Europe, a couple of hundred years ago.
The University of Alaska Fairbanks sends a team over to Greenland every year to drill the ice. If anyone wants to look this stuff up, hit the UAF website. (Probably the geophysical dept.)
People moved over here to Alaska during the last "big" ice age. They've found tools and stuff that date to 10K YBP up near Old Crow in the Yukon Territory, right across the present Alaska/Canada border, up above the Yukon River. (Up the Porcupine River.)
This little blue planet will revoke our permission to live on it any damned time it feels like it, with no advance notice. So in the mean time, grow a nice garden and try to be kind to people. (Unless they're idiots, twits or trolls.)
Jan
--
The way to a man's heart is between the fourth and the fifth rib.

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Oh, God, not cyclemania again :-( As with most other areas where people have claimed to discover cycles (and the reason is not obvious), there is damn-all evidence for them. Most of the time the series is almost certainly an ARIMA model of sorts (think of that as a correlated random walk).
Regards, Nick Maclaren.
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Nick Maclaren wrote:

I'll say this for it, though: pdq does mean "pretty damn quick".
--
Mike.



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wrote:

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Any extrapolation of climate change based only on around 100 years worth of hard data of varying quality and reliabilty will of necessity require a fair amount of conjecture.
If you're of the opinion that your conjecture is superior to that of the meteorologists whose opinion I quoted then good for you.
All else is hand waving IMHO.
michael adams
...

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That is true, but is seriously misleading, because there is a LOT more data of adequate quality - if you are up to handling it.

No, my statement is not conjecture. I am a statistician, incidentally.
To repeat what I said, there is damn-all evidence for a cyclic phenomenon in this case and, in situations like this one, almost all cases of apparent cycles are created by something like an ARIMA process. I could also add that the observations from previous centuries are quite good enough in quality to debunk the theory that there is a single predominant cycle.
While I am pretty rusty in this aspect of statistics, I could still explain in more detail than I expect you want to know about this issue.
Regards, Nick Maclaren.
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wrote:

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Jolly good for you!
I do hope you're not looking for a round of applause or anything at this juncture Mr McLaren. As one of the meteorologists I was referring to, just happens to be Prof. Mark Saunders of the Dept. of Space and Climate Physics at UCL.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/g2/story/0,,1533737,00.html
< selective quotes >
Scorched Earth
John Vidal
Friday July 22, 2005
The Guardian
There are severe to moderate droughts affecting all of Portugal, Spain and southern France, northern Italy, Austria, Hungary and the northern parts of the former Yugoslavia," says Mark Saunders, head of climate prediction at the department of space and climate physics at University College London.
[...]
The real reason for the drought is essentially a lack of rainfall over the past nine months. In winter and spring, most reservoirs get replenished, but in the UK, for example, the past six months have seen barely two-thirds of the average expected rainfall.
Professor Saunders says that the current situation is a result of natural climate variability. Drought trends going back more than 100 years show this sort of natural cycle repeating itself time and again. He also rules out global warming as a contributing factor since it is expected to cause wetter winters.
</quote>
I'm not in the habit of posting unsupported rubbish on NewsGroups Mr McLaren, despite the fact that I don't provide cites for every remark and opinion expressed, and I can only suggest you save the condescension\obfuscation trolls for those who unlike myself, who are more likely to be impressed by them.
...
< Snipped obfuscation and doomed attempt to impress >
...

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If on the other hand you do really have serious concerns about Professor Saunders' entire appproach to this question Mr McLaren, then I can only suggest you raise the matter direct with him, by possibly writing to him at UCL.
Or if he too shows little interest in listening to your detailed argument, maybe making up some placards and chaining yourself to the railings outside. Until the world shows itself ready to listen to what you have to say.
Or whatever.
I can't say fairer than that, now can I?
michael adams
...

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And you are regarded THAT as being an ACCURATE representation of what he said? Have you NO experience of how scientific statements get mangled in the press?

And there you can see it. Assuming that he knows his statistics, the first sentence is likely to be an accurate representation of what he said, but the term 'natural cycle' was almost certainly introduced as a loose description by the reporter.

Then please don't do so again.
Regards, Nick Maclaren.
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wrote:

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I know. We're all conspiring against you.
Newspaper reporters, posters on NewsGroups....
...

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So if the drought trends aren't decribing 'cycles' precisely what are they describing ?
And what is it, that's being "repeated" ?
Or again, is it possible for anything to be repeated without that repetition representing a "cycle".
Or are you now going to claim that the words "drought trends" and "repeated are total fabrications on the part of John Vidal as well ?
Total figements of his imagination, which totally misrepresent what Professor Saunders work is all about.
Because basically to claim that an experienced and respected Science reporter such as John Vidal is either deliberately or inadvertantly misreprenting Saunders, just so as to get yourself out of the hole you've dug for youreself, is pretty reprehensible under any circumstances.
Especially as in this instance, its totallly poinless in any case. As you should well know yourself. Cranks touting crackpot theories demonstrating where all the experts have gone wrong, with page upon page of calculations to prove it, are two a penny on Usenet.
So that thus far we have the evidence of -
a) Professor Mark Saunders, Head of Climate Prediction at the Department of Space and Climate Physics at University College London.
b) as reported by "John Vidal who has been a journalist at the Guardian for twelve years, as Environmental Editor for the past six years. He has twice won Environmental Journalist of the Year in the national awards." http://www.mcspotlight.org/media/books/vidal.html
To repeat, that's twice now he's won it.
c) Against the word of one Usenet crackpot who claims everyone is conspiring against him.

Not too difficult a choice to make really, is it?
michael adams
...
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Trends, perhaps?
--
Rusty
Emus to: horrid dot squeak snailything zetnet point co full-stop uk
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You didn't ask Dubya, didya?
--
Rusty
Emus to: horrid dot squeak snailything zetnet point co full-stop uk
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No, but he clearly learnt his science from the same source.
Regards, Nick Maclaren.
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contains these words:

Attempting to discredit scientists is more your own, and Bush's (advisors) speciality than mine, I'd have thought.
Although lying about people seems a particular speciality of yours.
As it is with most Crackpots of course.
More especially once they start to feel the heat.
michael adams
....

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michael adams wrote: [...]

Michael, I can't help wondering why you use such an aggressive style in discussion. It's awfully off-putting. I seem to remember having been on the wrong end of it myself on one occasion (perhaps I started it: I really can't remember). Surely if you have the evidence and present it clearly, it will speak for itself: the issue is far too interesting to get emotional about. Nick gets distinctly blunt at times, but ratcheting up isn't the way to deal with it.
--
Mike.



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Then don't read my posts.
It really is as simple as that, isn't it?
If you want a forum which is run solely to suit your own personal tastes Mr Lyle, then I can only suggest you start up your own moderated chat board.
It isn't my function in life to provide you personally with either entertainment or information. More especially when you're not paying me anything to do so. And I find it rather presumptuous on your part to assume otherwise.
...

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If I ever require advice on how to conduct myself on NewsGroups Mr Lyle, or in life generaly for that matter, you can rest assured that the first person who I'll turn to for advice, will be somebody who clearly believes themselves especially qualified to offer advice on such subjects, such as yourself.
michael adams
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You seem to be succeeding admirably in the former, though failing rather dismally regarding the latter. Perhaps it's a good thing that it isn't your function in life.

I don't remember anyone assuming that you were being paid for your outpourings.

Ah, good. I must say that I approve of your rating Mike as knowing how to conduct himself in newsgroups, for I totally agree there.
<Book of Common Prayer>
Hear them, read, mark, learn, and inwardly digest them.
</Prayer>
--
Rusty
Emus to: horrid dot squeak snailything zetnet point co full-stop uk
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The only evidence in support of your increasingly hysterical replies rests in your own posts - nowhere else.
--
Rusty
Emus to: horrid dot squeak snailything zetnet point co full-stop uk
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