Ping David E. Ross: rain!

[T]

Hi David,

I caught this on the National Weather Service's web site:

"Heavy rain, strong winds expected across Pacific Northwest and northern California

A weather system tapping into subtropical moisture will bring abundant rainfall to the Pacific Northwest and northern California through the weekend. The heaviest rainfall is expected Thursday night into Friday. Rainfall amounts in excess of 5 in. are possible through Saturday evening, especially across northern Calif. This system will also bring high winds to the region, with gusts up to 60 mph.

Read More:

Hope you get some of it down there.

-T

[David E. Ross]

Unfortunately, most storms that affect northern and central California weaken significantly before they reach southern California. Often, they do not cross the Tehachapi Mountain ridge.

The latest National Weather Service forecast (2:30 pm Pacific time) indicates a 50% to 70% chance of rain by Saturday. Many years ago, a meteorologist told me that means only 50% to 70% of the area will get any rain with 30% to 50% of the area remaining dry.

However, heavy storms in northern California are what southern California needs. Most of our water comes by aqueduct from the north. Our long-term storage depends more on northern snow-pack than on reservoirs. I am concerned because the forecast also indicates above-average temperatures all across California, which will limit the amount of snow in the north.

[T]

The 4km infrared satellite shows it coming!

[T]

Yesterday it started with 90 MPH sustained winds and blowing sand. At times visibility was only about 50 feet.

Blew down both my side fences and messed up both my gates. The whole county is in a terrible mess.

Then last night the wind died down to 35 MPH and it rained all night.

Today, the wind in down to 25 MPH and it rains off an on.

No damage to my house. Other had their roofs blown off. Virtually no fence in the county did not sustain damage.

I guess you should be careful what you wish for.

The sand blew right through your windows. The sills are dark brown with the stuff. At least with the rain now, the blowing sand is gone.

[songbird]

T wrote: ...

almost sounds like the dustbowl days.

songbird

[songbird]

David E. Ross wrote: ...

it looks like these past few days are dropping a lot of moisture on the mountain tops so i sure hope that is adding up to a lot more snow pack for you folks.

songbird

[David E. Ross]

I'm not hopeful about snow. The entire state has been experiencing above average temperatures.

"Rain years" are measured from 1 October to 30 September of the following calendar year. That is because most rain falls December through February. As of 3:00pm Pacific time today, my area has had 6.8 inches of rain so far this rain year. That is more than the entire rainfall during the 12 months of each of the prior two rain years:

2012-2013 had 5.2 inches and 2013-2014 had 5.9 inches. However, the average over the rain years 2003-2004 through 2011-2012 was 13.1 inches.

[T]

There is snow out the back window on the back side of the (10,000 to

14,000 foot) Sierras. But Lake Tahoe got rain, so it is pretty high up. Tahoe and Carson City are about the same elevation. But Carson City is not in the rain shadow.

Since Maritime Tropicals (this storm) alternate with Maritime Polar storms, the next one should be pretty cold.

Hopefully, only moderate windows this next time. I was waiting to see a wild horse go flying by my window.

[T]

Hi Songbird,

Pretty much. Fortunately, only for one day.

Looks like rain off and on for the next three days.

I do like rain and snow. I can't stand overcast. I want something to happen. Sunshine is good too.

Now if we can only get these storms to go a little further south so that David can get wet too. :-)

-T

[songbird]

T wrote: ...

heh, sunshine is great here when it happens. in the middle of winter it is really nice to have a sunny day. it is blinding when the snow is fresh.

dunno what happened the past few days there but it does look like more rain for today for the mid- section and northern parts. as for snow pack reports the site:

is as official as it gets.

songbird

[David E. Ross]

I looked at that site. In terms of snowpack, the picture is bleak.

None of the major state reservoirs are indicated at that site. I prefer , which is only updated monthly. This one shows "Snowpack Water Content" statewide and individually for three regions of the Sierras. As of New Year day, the snowpack ranged from 44% to 56% of the to-date average; state-wide it was 49%.

That page also lists the 12 major reservoirs operated by the California Department of Water Resources. A little computation (via copy and paste into a spreadsheet) shows that, as of the beginning of this year, those reservoirs held only 34% of their combined capacity.

I anxiously await the 1 February update.

[songbird]

David E. Ross wrote: ...

there has definitely been a lot more moisture the past few weeks, but i'm not sure how much of it translated into snow and what amount will end up showing in the reservoirs even sooner.

i didn't know the state had it's own separate reservoir setups, but good to know, i'll add that link to my book- mark collection. : )

how do your numbers compare to:

?

i think the March 1 update will be quite different based upon what i've been seeing the past few weeks on the radars.

ah, in nosing around perhaps some of what i've seen is already reflected in the above link...

songbird

[David E. Ross]

My data only includes the 12 major reservoirs listed at . Your link includes a number of locally operated reservoirs that serve only their local areas.