"Climate: The Counter Consensus"

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wrote:

Yes - aus.environment.conservation series - expected to get flamed but nothing happened. Seems the usual suspects have all gone somewhere else. I stayed away from aus.politics ...

Probably my ineptitude with XNews

Thanks WW - think I'll keep that. I've never claimed to be an "expert" but on the basis of some of these characters, why not? I have some status in the field of climate-responsive design, and I've done a fair amount of modelling, so that's two areas out of the hundred or so scientific and technical disciplines that have a bearing on climate change. I know that the GCMs (global climate models) are dodgy, not only because they have failed to produce results consistent with observations over the last 10 years or so, but also because I can see all the same signs of error in my own modelling work; two exercises that match subsequent observations so are (maybe/probably) ok, another four that turned out to be junk.
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LOL, let's all be scientists.

Seems the only way a model is going to produce results accurately is if reality, itself, is plugged into them.
But we don't need a model to figure that burning roughly half (and more) of the oil that was ever produced is going to have some effect on our thin film of an atmosphere do we?
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wrote:

Has to have some effect, but on the other hand, it's putting the carbon back where it came from in the first place. If we have already used half of the known reserves, and the amount released only accounts for 4.5% of atmospheric co2, I reckon a worse problem occurs when it runs out, and we don't have an alternative.
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Perhaps, but it's not just carbon is it? I hear the Russian permafrost has begun to melt and release methane-- apparently much more potent. But at the same time, the poles were ostensibly much warmer than they are today-- perhaps even at tropical levels. This is something that I might like to look into... Perhaps there may be differences between how the planet does it over time and how we do it suddenly, by geological time-scale terms. IOW, if I push you fast and hard enough, you will topple over, but if I push you with the same force, but over a longer time period, you likely won't-- that kind of idea. So, perhaps-- and what the climatologists are saying-- is that the Earth will likely reach equilibrium, but not before some serious/ chaotic climatic adjustments. What do you think?

Peak oil? Funny, but I look forward to the down-slope, but perhaps like my suggestion above, it may come with some serious/chaotic (i.e., economic/lifestyle) adjustments.
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wrote:

May be conflicting evidence on the permafrost issue; would be accompanied by the movement north of the tree line, but that's not happening.
Trouble is, there really isn't one climate: changes at the poles are a mixture of loss and accretion, long cycles, but no evidence of aggregate loss of ice.

Trouble is, these "chaotic climatic adjustments" are only "predicted" because they are built into all the current crop of climate models. The models are junk not only because they have got the trends from 1998 completely wrong; they all include positive feedback, eg a marginal increase in co2 causes an increase in water vapour and other effects that multiply any man-made co2 effect. This is more junk. Positive feedback is extremely rare in nature. If it was a feature of climate, then the marginal amount of man-made co2 would be the least of our worries.

What gets me is that all this AGW stuff is diverting resources away from doing useful things like protecting communities from natural disasters that will continue to occur, making sure buildings and communication systems are adequate etc.
Went to a BSA (Building Services Authority) workshop yesterday. Locally there has been a big increase in masonry defects. This year has seen a coincidence of the La Nina to the west and the Indian Ocean Dipole effect to the east. Natural occurrence, happens every 30 years or so. Long period of heavy rain, protracted monsoon, cyclones, in many areas acting on expansive clays. But the defects are not the fault of the weather, they are caused by defective work, failure to place starter bars in slabs, inadequate ties etc. The BSA Northern Division has 3 full-time and 1 part time inspectors. The area they have to cover is about 240,000 km2.
$US 3 billion per annum spent on AGW research. All apparently wasted. If carbon trading grows into a global commodity market, it could reach $US 33 trillion. Carbon trading is about trading "credits" (bits of paper), not developing alternative forms of energy. It's a Cargo Cult.
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"Ken S. Tucker"> wrote:

Innerestin statement there Kennif. Tax is theft and how it is spent is determined to be good by the victim. I'll remember that the next time I get rolled.
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wrote:

Bitcoin http://www.bitcoin.org /
I'll repost this: "Lastly, Gandhi developed the concept of nonviolent revolution, to be seen not as a programme for the seizure of power, but as a programme for transforming relationships. The concept sits neatly with the observation of... Gustav Landauer (1870-1919): 'The state is a condition, a certain relationship between beings, a mode of behaviour; we destroy it by contracting other relationships, by behaving differently.' " ~ Geoffrey Ostergaard
We destroy it by behaving differently.
Bitcoin... barter... local economics... etc.. and/or whatever works. Whatever strangles your monster. For example, you can't pay taxes if you're "not working".
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Is it? Seems nothing is being done about anything, except the status- quo that's got us all off a cliff.

Systemic ratcheting effect down to the lowest common denominator it seems.
Buildings were built much better in the old days, yes? And lasted longer?

I heard about that.
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Perhaps it's the *speed* at which it is being "replenished". Apparently, we are going to get a delayed effect as things-- the climate dynamic-- catches up. Meanwhile, that which can't adjust fast enough will be in trouble-- species extinctions and all that.
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