"Climate: The Counter Consensus"

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"Climate: The Counter Consensus" by Professor Robert Carter, James Cook University NQ. ISBN: 978 1 906768 294. As someone who has experience of statistical modelling, I have long been a sceptic concerning anthropogenic global warming, and the deterministic models that are claimed to demonstrate it.
This book confirms my scepticism.
I believe that AGW may well turn out to be the greatest scam ever perpetrated on the human race.
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Humankind's ability to fuck things up has no boundaries at all. This includes misconstruing and misinterpreting almost anything.

The wonderful thing about the world is that you can find anything to confirm whatever you want to believe.

It would take quite something to top religion.
R
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wrote:

+1
Being one of those old devils of whom people often say "ask him he knows everything", I do try to be flexible. When I was 15 I was convinced that Oswald could not have shot Kennedy, because at that age I could shoot straight (94/100 on a 400 yard range) and I couldn't have done it. Recently I have changed my mind - less likely now that it was Julien Sarti.

Very true - and I'm religious. At least religion does have some positives - moves many people to love thy neighbour and act on it etc. This one only benefits people who receive money from the annual global expenditure on AGW research (+/- $US10 billion), carbon traders ("Mr 2%" Al Gore, 2 x $20 on a $1000 trade), and a suppliers of associated "solutions". Everyone else pays big time, and for no perceivable benefit.
Precautions against natural hazards are taking second place. This year has been a bad one here in this regard; floods, super-cyclone, 5.4 earth tremour a few days ago, but as it happens, nothing outside the norm.
1998 was a peak year in a long cycle between warmer & colder. The trend in observed values since then has been down. This could continue for 30 years or so. However, the GCMs (IPCC's deterministic general climate models) all project upwards, and these are still driving the issues. We are going to hell on a computer game ...
On the other hand, an interesting recent development here - a new State Policy on Coastal Zone Planning. I thought "Oh Gawd more misplaced knee- jerking" but in fact, while the PC polemic is there, the policy really only identifies places where there is an unacceptable risk on the basis of current circumstances.
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And we're communicating on a computer game, your accountant did your taxes on a computer game, etc., etc., ad infinitum.
http://motherjones.com/politics/2011/03/denial-science-chris-mooney
We are built that way. We better remember things that agree with our previously held beliefs. For example, do you think that Ken could come up with a single instance of where the 'govmint' did something well/positive?
R
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wrote:

An acquaintance of mine who is a tax investigator said something similar. She was marvelling at some of the people who were in default and had to talk to her - lifestyle consultants, financial advisors, tax accountants ...
Thing is - my experience in computer models goes back to retail and other gravity models on 1970's mainframes. I can tell the difference between projections and predictions. Correlations are common - determinations are not.

"We apply fight-or-flight reflexes not only to predators, but to data itself."
LOL. Ain't that the truth ... otherwise you'd go stark-staring mad these days. I can understand stuff in a number of fields, but often shut off when someone extolls the virtues of latest handheld thingy. One or two pieces of recalcitrant electronic junk is enough, unless it looks like it could be a breakthrough, like GPS. I just like my phone to make and receive phone calls and a bit of text. These days you need to have the finger size, manual dexterity and 20/20 vision of a lively 5 year old. Don Norman's "The Design of Everyday Things" said it all, and it seems to be getting worse. How often these days do you find an on/off switch that actually turns the thing off?

Bit doubtful isn't it. I tend to complain about a lot of things, but ALWAYS make the point of giving praise when the govmint in its various forms does something right. That way, I gain influence. I also try to follow a policy of not correcting mistakes that are self- correcting.
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wrote:

Na you were right - projection merely confirmed your expertise.
You should have a look at Carter's book - you'll like it.
The retail gravity modelling I was involved in was to try to determine if there was scope for more shopping facilities in a smallish centre that had some large conurbations near it. This was late 70's so it took time, money and mainframe. The Council wanted to know where the money was going and were there any results. We gave them the preliminary, unaudited results, which were positive. The Council then said get it on the drawing board. Big panic. Wotif we got a decimal in the wrong place - easily done. Chew fingernails, search job adverts.... More panic when place was nearly finished and few enquiries had come in, but out of the blue a catalyst-type chain (pregnant mums and kids under 5 stuff) sent a "sniffer' to have a look, took a lease, and others followed. The whole project won a major international award. No need to check the coding ...


Printed on hemp ? Not sure about now but 'red tape' used to be made of hemp. A few strands and you could tow a cart or hang youself with it. Smoke it possibly - not sure about the pink dye though ...

LOL. Sounds like most of the places I've lived. No wonder I'm not wealthy - can't keep my mouth shut ...
Back on topic - peers can be intimidating - see Climategate - and $10 billion a year to toe the line is too ...
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wrote:

It's covered in the book. Book is currently in reprint, but Amazon or Amazon UK might have it. Not available here (the town where it was written) although one bookshop kept a couple of copies before the print run ran out.
Never stocked at the bookshop in Carter's own university. Asking for it there would be the equivalent of farting in church apparently.

It won the Europa Nostra Award (Council of Europe) for excellence in urban design, but can't find anything on the net. All I have left is this image, poor quality:
http://people.aapt.net.au/jclark19/UDDurham2.jpg
Shopping mal is centre of the postage stamp image.

Ought to be grown here, for paper, fibreglass, clothes etc. Saw a news item here where they had uprooted a plantation and were airlifting the stuff in sacks under helicopters. Seed was showering down over the Great Dividing Range. I know from my own work that hempseed stays viable for a very long time. Plants used to appear on land reclamation sites I worked on - the seed would have been from canary food, eg, predated the 1832 miner's safety lamp.

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My post of a quote over a the Oil Drum: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/7724/784088
Part of it: "* The state both promotes and is reinforced by forms of high technology which require state control, such as nuclear power, space programmes, supersonic transport aircraft and, not least, military technology such as nuclear weapons. Challenging these forms of high technology also directly challenges the expansion or maintenance of centralised political and economic power which is closely linked with the state. The movement against nuclear power has repeatedly been met with state opposition and repression precisely for this reason. State support for technology which is capital-intensive, dependent on experts, and which requires state ownership or control can be seen as one way in which the state creates conditions of existence favourable to itself. Challenges to nuclear power, supersonic transports and other similar technologies thereby become potent avenues for confronting state power."
It should make some people think about centralized power in general, like wind farms and the like. Even centralized architecture and food systems for that matter.
Maybe it's just my imagination, but govmonks sure do seem to like centralization. Helps keeps us under control and our hands out of our own self-empowerment, like growing our own food, making our own clothes, building our own homes and generating our own power (and/or leaving it to the sun) or, as Rico recently put it in another thread if recalled; to the effect of having some semblance of the knowledge, control and/or connection of the above and similar.
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"Ken S. Tucker"> wrote:

There for a second I thought you were talking about Canada and not the US.
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RicodJour> wrote:

If he did he'd be lying. Everything a gov't does it does with stolen property.... So if you're an advocate of thievery, cut out the middle man and keep all the proceeds yourself. ...and therefore is not capable of any good.
It doesn't take a genius to see what a gov't is all about but it does require paying attention.
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troppo> wrote:

You could say that about anything. AGW fer instance. The belief in it has caused some boneheads to stop wasting stuff, er, at least say they stopped. Hell, even in WWII Italy the trains were supposedly running on time.
I'm with Rico, religion spans millenia, both backwards and forwards presumably, proving the still primitive nature of many homosapiens. Read something recently that said something like, "Believers in religion have hit an intellectual concrete wall and its uncomprehensible to them of a life without a supreme being."
I know the feeling cause its the way I get when Tucker sends me another one of his emails about that silly old string theory stuff - I just don't get it. LOL
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Yup - AGW is a new religion

and these days they get a carbon credit to "prove" it, just like a medieval church pardon ...

Isn't that the only thing Mussolini got right ...


One of my interests as well ... science and religion are one ... Hawking uses the word 'God' 48 times in "A Brief History of Time" - it's the same territory.
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troppo> wrote:

One thing for certain, this winter sure seemed long, and especially cold and nasty. And I have the propane bill to prove it.....
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wrote:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth_berm
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Funny thing here - after a summer of some horrendous rains and a 90 year ARI cyclone, the last two mornings have been freezing. Ok - that means <16 deg Celcius around here - but flies dropping dead, birds fluffing their feathers? Doesn't usually happen until June/July. Have to go south for a conference in June - better get some thermal underwear ...
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Where's "south"? Adelaide? I heard from a relative in NZ that Auckland got a tornado. Have people ever lost their underwear in a tornado, I wonder.
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No - Brisbane :-) Wouldn't fancy Adelaide at the moment ... Last year I was getting off a flight from Brisbane to Townsville, and they said the temperature was 12 C. So I hung back to put on my woolly jacket. Heard another passenger say "oooh it's lovely & warm up here "

Never experienced one, but I guess - yes. Anyone ever survived being picked up by a tornado? Could happen ... I've heard of people falling out of planes and surviving - here's one:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1071076/posts
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So you're based in Townsville then? Well, I pulled Adelaide because I hear it's a nice town for one reason or another. I guess if you're used to Townsville climate, that might be a fair difference.

Read the whole article. Nothing like a little glass to catch your eye, nose and fall.
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On 2011-04-21 16:40, troppo wrote:

Oh a flat world beliver.
I tell You now the biggest lie ever.
The lie just right now destroing the USA.
The "oil is cheap" lie.
Every US citizen consumes in average 10 litre oil a day 7 litre of this are imported.
An assisting lie is "It has no influence on the climate, regardless how much oil You burn"
Look at this 2 videos, this is the future caused by this big lie from cheap oil
http://politics.pege.org/2010/us-inflation.htm http://politics.pege.org/2010/usa-future-2030-.htm
--
Roland Msl - PEGE - http://www.pege.org
Planetary Engineering Group Earth
  Click to see the full signature.
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You seemed to have posted this to other groups, but alt.architecture didn't seem to snag, so here it is again, here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qZzwRwFDXw0

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